Cruz pulls ahead of Trump (and almost even with Hillary) in Wisconsin

If it's just Wisconsin, with its 42 delegates allocated per congressional district on a winner-take-all basis, then it's probably not significant. But if it's a sign of a trend that could portend shifts in the polls across the nation, then the good news Ted Cruz got out of Wisconsin from the Emerson College Polling Society could be an indication of bigger things to come:

As establishment Republicans look for ways to slow Donald Trump’s relentless march toward the party’s presidential nomination, Wisconsin’s winner-take-all GOP primary contest on April 5 offers some intriguing possibilities. In a statewide Emerson College poll released today, Texas Senator Ted Cruz is not only leading Trump 36% to 35% in the upcoming primary, but Cruz is only trailing Hillary Clinton by one point in a hypothetical general election matchup, 46% to 45%. In contrast, Trump is trailing both Clinton and her Democratic rival, Bernie Sanders, by the same 9-point margin of 47% to 38% in a potential general election match-up.

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In the Democratic primary, Clinton leads Sanders by 6 points, 50% to 44%, with 5% undecided. Wisconsin’s demographics bode well for Sanders, who has enjoyed his strongest wins in states with a low percentage of minorities and lopsided support for him among young voters. He leads Clinton 67% to 29% in the 18-34 age group and ties her at 48% among voters 35-54. As in other primaries Emerson College has polled, he trails her by large margins with older voters: 63% to 31% (ages 55- 74) and 73% to 19% (ages 75 and up). Less than 10% of the state’s Democratic voters are African American or Latino, groups that have supported Clinton very heavily in other states. There continues to be a gender gap on the Democratic side with men favoring Sanders 51% to 43%, while women prefer Clinton 48% to 36%. Each candidate is ahead in four of the state’s eight Congressional districts. Sanders is running strongest in the western half of Wisconsin and in the northeast region. Clinton’s support is concentrated in the southeast area bordering Lake Michigan. The GOP race follows a similar pattern, with Trump and Cruz splitting the districts 4-4, Trump polling strong in the western region, and Cruz doing well in the east. In the GOP primary, Ohio Governor John Kasich finishes far behind Cruz (36%) and Trump (35%), with 19% of the vote. It appears that Kasich is pulling votes from Cruz as Kasich supporters find Cruz more favorable than Trump, 36% to 27%.

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That last item suggests that Cruz could pull away and win Wisconsin big if Kasich were not in the race to pull votes away from him, but for whatever reason Kasich has no intention of going anywhere, so if Cruz is going to win he's going to have to win a three-man race. What I wonder, though, is if it's possible that Cruz may start pulling some voters from Trump. On my Facebook page yesterday, I asked conservative voters who prefer Trump to Cruz to please explain why they do. I got a lot of responses, which you can see for yourself, but almost none of them had to do with preferring a policy position or anything of that nature. They basically fell under the following categories:

• Trump is not a politician and Cruz is.
• Trump can fund his own campaign so he won't owe anyone anything.
• Trump means business and won't back down to terrorists, etc.
• Trump isn't afraid of the media or the PC crowd, etc.

Basically it all has to do with Trump's personal qualities, or personal circumstances that the supporters believe position him to be a stronger leader. There were also people who said they support Trump because Cruz rubs them the wrong way personally, for whatever reason.

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It seems stupid at this point to think Trump can do anything that will make people conclude he's gone too far, but if anything might have that effect with some people, you'd think the picture he tweeted of Mrs. Trump and Mrs. Cruz just might be the thing. That, plus Cruz's very classy and effective response, might cause some of the people who prefer Trump to Cruz personally to rethink their position. Then again, how many times have we thought that about Trump because of something he did or said? Most of those who support Trump seem not the slightest bit interested in the things that the boss puts under the category of "political noise." They just want a different kind of leader, and Trump seems like the guy. I'm not sure if anything is going to change that at this point, but I do find the movement of the numbers in Wisconsin noteworthy, and I'm going to be watching closely to see if they portend any sort of national trend. Because that could be the one thing that could still make this a real race.

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