Economists Forecast 50% Recession Odds

The U.S. is headed for a sharp downturn in 2024 under the weight of continuing high inflation, an uptick in unemployment and a 50% chance of recession, according to the closely watched Outlook Survey by the National Association for Business Economics.

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at a mere 1% throughout 2024, NABE President Ellen Zentner, also chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said in the survey. That will be a notable descent from GDP’s 5.2% annualized rate in the third quarter, the fastest rate of expansion since 2021. ---More...