Where's James Carville when you need him? The 'Ragin' Cajun' who played a key part in Bill Clinton's campaigns for President gave Clinton a mindful poke in the ribs when he started to drift off-course and lose sight of what was important to voters.
Carville wrote on a white board in Clinton's office 'It's The Economy, Stupid'. Someone should write the same on Premier McGuinty's white board to get him back on track with a new economic focus. Private sector economists are forecasting a possible Ontario recession and calling for new forecasts. Mr. McGuinty should heed their call with a mini-budget.
The Bank of Montreal's BMO Capital Markets recently forecast Ontario GDP growth to be flirting with a technical recession - two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. They predict Ontario's first quarter financial results, to be released in July, will be "dismal". They suggest the government should re-evaluate all of its budget predictions. The government predicted GDP growth of 1.1% not zero. It predicted oil at $85 per barrel not $135. The government ignored these warning signs during the last session of the legislature.
The legislative session has recently fizzled to a lack-lustre end with politicians returning to their ridings for a summer of constituency barbecues where, hopefully, they may regain some necessary perspective on what is important. Premier McGuinty's legislative agenda - what there is of one - clearly demonstrates a government adrift with little focus and no plans. Debates focused on matters of less consequence while ignoring monumental issues like the faltering economy.
This spring has seen the impact of a perfect financial storm in Ontario. A high Canadian dollar, sky-rocketing gas and energy prices, and a struggling manufacturing sector have all been highlighted by numerous firms announcing shift reductions and wide-spread layoffs. Meanwhile, the McGuinty government's focus has been elsewhere.
He led a ban on commercial use of pesticides, a ban on trucks speeding and a ban on smoking in cars with children. He added a 'Family Day' holiday and promoted the use of clotheslines. His budget passed a handful of negligible boutique tax cuts, provided modest relief for low-income seniors through a property tax grant and provided some meaningful assistance to business with the accelerated capital cost allowance. As well, his new electronics recycling tax is about to be approved, which will hurt consumers, and he has announced plans for a carbon trading scheme that will add more costs to businesses. These are not focused or serious measures that will help the struggling Ontario economy.
More recently, however, Premier McGuinty indicated he may need to change gears from his Nanny State policy obsession and address a faltering economy. He could start with a mini-budget freezing spending. This would address Mr. McGuinty's problem of runaway government spending that has grown at more than twice the rate of inflation in each of the last five years. One area of note is the unsustainable growth of the public sector where one government job is being created for every private-sector job.
It is time for a change in Ontario; a change away from years of taxing and spending to a time of measured government restraint. One can only hope politicians get an earful this summer from people asking them to begin dealing with some real challenges facing Ontario taxpayers and businesses, instead of playing around with ones that make little difference. When they return in the fall, Ontario legislators would be better served by heeding Carville's advice!
