By Robert Laurie ——Bio and Archives--May 1, 2018
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Enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is waning among millennials as its candidates head into the crucial midterm congressional elections, according to the Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll. The online survey of more than 16,000 registered voters ages 18 to 34 shows their support for Democrats over Republicans for Congress slipped by about 9 percentage points over the past two years, to 46 percent overall. And they increasingly say the Republican Party is a better steward of the economy. Although nearly two of three young voters polled said they do not like Republican President Donald Trump, their distaste for him does not necessarily extend to all Republicans or translate directly into votes for Democratic congressional candidates. That presents a potential problem for Democrats who have come to count on millennials as a core constituency – and will need all the loyalty they can get to achieve a net gain of 23 seats to capture control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November.
Terry Hood, 34, an African-American who works at a Dollar General store in Baton Rouge, Louisiana and took this year’s poll, said he voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. But he will consider a Republican for Congress because he believes the party is making it easier to find jobs and he applauds the recent Republican-led tax cut. “It sounds strange to me to say this about the Republicans, but they’re helping with even the small things,” Hood said in a phone interview. “They’re taking less taxes out of my paycheck. I notice that.”Uh-oh! Millennials like jobs and money? Who knew!? As we’ve said many times before, even a minor shift in the African American vote would decimate the Dems. It would only take something on the order of a minor 3-5 point defection to render them incapable of victory. We’re a long way from seeing that happen, but there are indicators that show the democrat grip on a variety of voting blocs may be slipping. Please note, you shouldn’t assume this means formerly enthusiastic Dems are suddenly going to start voting GOP.
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Only 28 percent of those polled expressed overt support for Republicans in the 2018 pollHowever, that number is unchanged over the course of the last two years – and we all know how the last election turned out. Trump is President and, supposedly, that’s got everyone whipped into a conservative-hating frenzy. If – despite the 2016 outcome – Republicans have maintained their current support while Dem support and enthusiasm wanes, the GOP should be in good shape. Certainly, we’d all love to see a replay of this….
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