The China files, Part 1: How fast can China grow?

By Hugo Dixon, Reuters Breakingviews How fast can China grow over the next decade? Nowhere near the breakneck speed it has enjoyed over the past three decades. Multiple economic, environmental and political challenges will slow it down.

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The capitalist revolution launched by Deng Xiaoping after Mao Zedong's death still has a long way to go. But it is now in its early middle ages rather than its infancy. The government recognises that the old model driven by exports and investment is running out of steam; indeed, its recently unveiled 12th five-year plan tries to grapple with that challenge. But it won't be easy for the next generation of leaders, who are due to take over next year, to devise a new model that can move nearly as fast as the old one. Growth since 1980 has averaged 10 percent a year, according to official statistics. Such rapid growth over such a long period is virtually unique.

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