In the movie Mary Poppins, Julie Andrews sang that “A Spoonful of Sugar Helps the Medicine Go Down.” So, it isn’t so far-fetched to believe that a Slice with extra cheese helps a crisis go down. Still, a little pepperoni couldn’t hurt;
The Pentagon Pizza Index, also known as the Pentagon Pizza Theory, is one of those pragmatic occurrences that may actually indicate high-level government activity.
The Pentagon Pizza Index is not a new concept. It is based on the premise that a sudden increase in fast-food orders, particularly pizza deliveries, near U.S. government buildings such as the Pentagon, CIA headquarters, and the White House, often signals an impending major crisis or announcement.
Of course, the Department of Defense (DOD) downplays the idea. Just like a good poker player or a quarterback doesn’t want to develop a “Tell” that tips others off about what’s coming, the DOD is reluctant to acknowledge that something as mundane as pizza orders could be tied to government strategy.
Last year, the DOD informed Newsweek that the Pentagon has several internal food vendors available for late-night workers and criticized the accuracy of the timeline provided by the Pentagon Pizza Report.
Still, in the hours between late last night and early this morning, there was unusually high activity observed at a Papa John's near the Pentagon. This activity coincided with the lead-up to the United States' strikes in Venezuela. Following those strikes, President Trump announced the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who were subsequently flown out of the country to face charges of narcoterrorism.
The rise in pizza orders occurred hours before the official confirmation of the operation, during which Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez reported the couple as missing.
Critics of the index misinterpret what it demonstrates. It’s one of those “Where there is smoke, there is fire” indicators. I’m sure there isn’t an increase in fast-food orders before every crisis, but when there is such an increase late at night or during the early morning hours, it seems reasonable to assume something is going on.
Reports concerning the theory date back to 1990, when Frank Meeks, a Domino's franchisee in Washington, made an interesting observation about unusual late-night pizza deliveries to the Pentagon, the CIA, and the White House. Meeks reported to the Los Angeles Times that on August 1, the CIA placed a record order for 21 pizzas in one night. The following day, Iraq invaded Kuwait, marking the beginning of the Gulf War.
Initially, Meeks believed the increase was merely coincidental. However, he remembered experiencing a similar rise in deliveries in 1983 and 1989, particularly in pizza orders to the Pentagon, which were observed the night before the U.S. military invasions of Grenada and Panama, as well as prior to Operation Desert Storm in 1991.
In January 1998, shortly after the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal made headlines, Meeks reported that the White House placed $2,600 in Domino's pizza orders over three days. In December of that same year, during the impeachment hearings of Bill Clinton and the initiation of Operation Desert Fox in Iraq, the White House ordered “32 percent more extra-cheese pizzas than usual,” totaling $11,600 in orders on Capitol Hill.
Wolf Blitzer, who was CNN's Pentagon correspondent at the time, stated, "The bottom line for journalists: “Always keep an eye on the pizzas." This observation about monitoring pizza deliveries parallels another observation: gay bars in Washington, D.C., experience unusually low patronage on nights when Pentagon employees work late.
Ahem, focusing on the pizza angle, on April 13, 2024, there was unusually high activity at a Papa John's in Washington, D.C. This coincided with Iran's launch of drones into Israeli territory, according to observations of Google Maps' popular times graph.
In August 2024, an X account named "Pentagon Pizza Report" was created to monitor live visit data on Google Maps in Arlington, but it lacks insight into actual order volume or the specific locations where pizzas are being delivered.
In June of last year, there were two incidents involving increased pizza deliveries: one occurred when Israel conducted a bombing campaign against Iran, and the other when the President announced U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities.
In the movie Mary Poppins, Julie Andrews sang that “A Spoonful of Sugar Helps the Medicine Go Down.” So, it isn’t so far-fetched to believe that a Slice with extra cheese helps a crisis go down. Still, a little pepperoni couldn’t hurt.
Read next: Pizza, Pepperoni, And The Pentagon
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