Trump’s Economy, Venezuela and the American Electorate

The peace president

With regard to his image as a peace-maker, considerable time and effort has been devoted to ending complicated and in some instances protracted foreign conflicts. But “Number 47” is headed into the new year with a hefty burden of unresolved foreign policy baggage: a persistent war in Ukraine, a Gaza peace plan facing a still armed Hamas, a truculent Iran and now the, ostensibly at least, democratically-elected leader of Venezuela (legitimately or otherwise) along with his wife snatched from sovereign Venezuelan territory and flown to the US to stand trial for alleged crimes against America.

And there are few signs Trump’s planning to avert his attention from geopolitics: the annexation of Greenland, continued warnings to Russia and Ukraine about stopping the war, nuclear issues with Teheran, trade issues with China, concern about the BRICS de-dollarization in trade and its advocacy with the Global South for a new multipolar world order.

Such preoccupation risks colliding with a midterm election expected to be dominated by Americans’ concerns about the cost-of-living--in other words--themselves.

Some Republican lawmakers were, even before the Venezuelan military intervention, already growing concerned at the “America First” president’s interest in resolving foreign conflicts. Polls have repeatedly shown voters continue to worry about domestic economic issues approaching the midterms.

“America First” president’s interest in resolving foreign conflicts

Trump is on record saying that the US will “run the country” of Venezuela until it can lock in a transition of power--no timeframe was offered. But the president must be cautious in his statements and actions regarding the future of Venezuela, its leadership, its substantial natural resources and America’s role in any of it.

Twenty years ago, the U.S. strained to defend against accusations that the Iraq War was about oil. Trump announced recently that “very large United States oil companies” will go in, “fix the badly broken infrastructure … and start making money for the country.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio intervened Sunday clarifying Trump’s comment that the US “will run the country”--he said it actually meant “running policy.” Yet, the president has also remarked that the US was not averse to putting “boots on the ground” in Venezuela--a troubling statement from the America First president.

The military intervention taken this past week by the president is already being compared not only to the $2 trillion misadventure in Iraq, but the 10-year failed effort to halt communism in Southeast Asia, calling it--“Trump’s Vietnam.”

With midterm elections arriving this fall, the last thing the president needs is the electorate’s perception of an open-ended military initiative to “nation build” in South America--where American troops have intervened several times during America’s attempt to contain communist infiltration there in the’50s, ‘60s and ‘70s.

It’s the economy dummy

President Trump will enter 2026 with a resounding, “I told you so,” concerning the success of his much-maligned tariffs agenda. For a program that mainstream economists and the legacy media predicted would fall flat, it not only served its stated purpose of substantially cutting America’s trade deficit, it continues to collect billions for the US Treasury. No, it did not increase inflation or dampen economic growth as was alleged would occur. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported that its CPI gauge of inflation had declined from a Biden administration high of 9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent. Moreover, the Commerce Department just released a third quarter annualized GPA growth figure of 4.3 percent after economists’ predictions of no more than 3.2 percent.

The president will need to take advantage of the positive momentum coming from his economic policies if he and the Republican Party are to prevail in the coming midterm elections.

Second term presidents always seek to foster their foreign policy initiatives to, hopefully, ensure a legacy in history. But the American people have their own priorities, and that continues to be about now, today: cost-of-living, housing, electricity, utilities, education, health care, groceries--the things that count in their lives every day.

Trump will spend the balance of 2026 with Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, assuming resignations don’t take their toll in the House of Representatives. But those majorities will be on the ballot in November’s midterm elections.

If Republicans lose control of either house of Congress, it will be no small task for Trump to do anything legislatively for the remainder of his presidency. All 435 House seats and about a third of the Senate are up for reelection this November.

Performance of the economy under Trump has been stellar

The economy is likely to be the biggest issue in 2026. This is especially true of inflation and the cost of living where Trump, given the recent positive economic data, should have the advantage. But if Democrats win either house of Congress, it will be difficult for Trump to further influence the direction of the economy. Moreover, the fate of Trump’s tariffs, which have been challenged at the Supreme Court, is also uncertain.

Trump heads into 2026 with a job approval rating of 43.4%, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. That’s comparable to where former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush were at this point in their second terms, although Trump is unusual in that his terms aren’t consecutive.

On the economy Trump’s approval rating averages roughly 40.7 percent. That’s a considerable improvement over former President Joe Biden for most of his term. Moreover, there has also been a slight improvement in the public’s view of the direction of the country.

Except for an uptick in unemployment in November (4.6 percent), the performance of the economy under Trump has been stellar, way beyond expectations. And the unemployment figure can be explained by more people entering the job market and increasing business investment in and commercial implementation of AI--a circumstance controlled more by corporate CEOs seeking reduced labor costs, than the 47th president of the United States.

President Trump needs a favorable outcome from the midterms--the future of his “America First” agenda is at stake--it needs not to be sacrificed over the serving of an arrest warrant on a dictator 2,797 miles away in Venezuela.