Trump set up a CUSMA trap
The U.S. and Mexico pick up trade agreement discussions on July 20, 2026. Not long after July 20th, sometime within the first two weeks of August there is a high probability the next shock to the Canadian system will come from Trump. However, it depends on how far out on the ledge cult leader Mark Carney is willing to take his believers.
On/around the end of August we will enter the ‘Trump playing with them‘ phase, just like Trump played with them in Jan, Feb, March ’25 over the 51st state stuff. President Trump will create turmoil because he holds all the cards for when he triggers the next sequence of events.
Essentially, the landscape is already set up. The bleachers are already built. The venue is already selected. The prideful Canadians have no concept of it.
At a point determined by Trump he will invite them into the gauntlet. There is no escape and only one way in.
Carney sits down at the table, Trump announces his demands, Carney balks, Trump glances to Greer, Greer hands Carney the formal exit paperwork and then suddenly everyone around Carney realizes what just happened. Trump set up a CUSMA trap.
A six-month countdown clock now ticks loudly. Trump repeats his demands. Carney looks around at his trade delegation, then asks for a few moments. They leave to huddle….
In the Canadian conference room, someone tells the group a six-month exit is now active. The walls are slowly closing.
If no terms are accepted, in six months all U.S. trade with Canada is immediately laissez-faire, no trade agreement backstops anything, meaning every trade is subject to the sectoral whims of the USA commerce department to outline the terms.
Carney asks his team what is happening. Trump tells them to take all the time in the world to think about it, and to give Jamieson or Howard a call if they have questions.
Trump and Greer then hold a press conference, telling the world the formal exit paperwork has now been issued. However, the U.S and Mexico already have a bilateral deal outlined and ready to begin, so U.S-Mexico trade is seamless. The only issue is Canada.