Now that the Ontario Progressive Conservatives have ended their leadership race and have chosen Tim Hudak to head the party, rumours are now rampant that former leader John Tory will soon declare his candidacy for mayor of Toronto. What will his chances be for unseating two-term chief magistrate and panhandler, David Miller, whose popularity is decreasing in inverse proportion to the city’s mounting garbage?
Although Tory has had a great deal of success in the business world his involvement in politics has been less than stellar. He managed the 1993 campaign of Kim Campbell that saw the once mighty federal PC party drop to two seats and then eventually be disbanded to form the present Conservative Party of Canada. Tory’s performance at the head of Ontario’s PC party wasn’t much better; the best thing that can be said for Tory’s time at the helm is that at least he left the party intact.
During the last provincial election, Tory was solely responsible for Dalton McGuinty, who brought in the largest tax increase in the province’s history after promising not to raise taxes, gaining a second term with a large majority. This was due in part to Tory’s insistence to put faith based funding on the election platform; he believed in FBF so it was of no consequence that polling indicated that it was a losing issue. It didn’t seem to matter to Tory that he handed the election to Dalton McGuinty on a silver platter. He did what he wanted to do.
Perhaps Tory’s greatest mistake in his short lived career as PC leader was his decision to run against Liberal Education Minister Kathleen Wynne. It didn’t seem to matter that the voters were not at the stage where they felt the Liberals had been around too long and just had to go. It didn’t seem to matter than despite a lot of unhappiness with Dalton McGuinty, Wynne was a fairly popular minister. It didn’t seem to matter that as a party leader, Tory wouldn’t have the time to campaign properly in a riding that he hadn’t held or had no great prominence in. And it didn’t seem to matter that the riding was in Toronto; not the most PC-friendly area in the province. Tory’s major political decisions were based upon pure ego. There may have been worse party leaders before but it’s hard to think of one offhand.
None of this is to say that John Tory is not qualified to be mayor of Toronto. To paraphrase the late William F. Buckley Jr. Toronto would be better off being governed by someone chosen at random from the telephone book than they would under the reign of David Miller. Miller’s popularity is dropping quickly in light of the current city workers strike (called a “garbage strike” by the many who whether they realize it or not, believe that municipal governments should concentrate on core services). Miller, a leftist ideologue has clearly shown during the early days of the strike that he cares passionately about ideology and feels utter contempt for the residents of the city; at least those who do the paying. As chaos developed during the early hours of the garbage strike, Miller’s only thought was to threaten those citizens who were dumping garbage because they were deprived of entrance to transfer stations. The mayor didn’t have a bad word to say to his union buddies who caused the problem in the first place by throwing their weight around as people showed up to dispose of their trash. Miller is definitely vulnerable next year if he chooses to seek a third term. One decision that Miller made that may prove to be fatal was mandating retailers charge 5 cents for plastic bags. Even the contingent of sheep that reside in Toronto and remain passive in the wake of huge tax increases get angry when they are being nickeled-and-dimed.
So David Miller’s re-election is far from the usual foregone conclusion that the reelection of incumbents usually is in municipal elections. Does this mean that John Tory will likely be elected mayor of Toronto if in fact he chooses to run? Probably not. While Tory’s humungous ego saw him lose an election that he should have come close in if not won and remain without a seat in the legislature that ultimately cost him his leadership of the PCs, he’s far from the only politician with an ego problem. A lot of Toronto City Councillors who are not part of David Miller’s socialist inner circle also suffer from the same malady. It only takes one of them to run a credible campaign that will effectively split the anti-Miller vote and see Miller in power for another four years of putting international issues such as climate change ahead of his constituents.
John Tory can only win if other prominent right-of-Miller candidates stay out of the race. And this is highly unlikely. If this scenario plays out, it will indeed be unfortunate. Toronto is one place where political leader Tory would be able to be successful, at least by comparison.
