Some financial writers have claimed that stock market crashes such as followed the 2007 Bubble are unpredictable and rare. Calling them “Black Swan” events. More recently, the Covid-19 health threat has been described as a “Black Swan” event. Making the two together about as “Black Swanny” as it gets. However, a review of history suggests that severe financial crashes have always followed great financial bubbles. The transitions to busts have had much in common and the methodical pattern strongly suggests that even the greatest of crashes since the first in 1720 have predictable characteristics. Therefore, severe financial panics cannot be considered as “Black Swan” events.
