The strait is never going back to the way it was because the Iranians have used, or tried to use it, as a choke point

Hormuz Miscalculation

Sec Bessent gets it.

Iran has mistaken a tactical threat for a durable advantage. By repeatedly signaling its willingness to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran hasn’t strengthened its hand, it has accelerated the market’s exit.

Capital does not tolerate chokepoints; it routes around them.

Saudi Arabia is expanding its East-West pipeline. The UAE has already built out Fujairah as a bypass. Iraq is revisiting overland export corridors. Every marginal dollar now flows toward redundancy, not reliance. What was once a geopolitical lever is being engineered into irrelevance. Bessent gets it: markets don’t absorb coercion, they arbitrage it away.

Energy markets are not static, and they are not sentimental. The shale revolution already diluted OPEC’s grip. LNG has globalized gas. Now infrastructure is doing the same to maritime risk. Once these pipelines are built, they don’t get unbuilt. Volume shifts become permanent. Pricing power follows.

Tehran’s miscalculation is classic: overplay a scarce asset, and the world invests to make it abundant. The more Iran rattles Hormuz, the faster it erodes the very leverage it seeks to exploit.

In the end, this is not deterrence. Its substitution and substitution, once funded, is irreversible. Iran is underwriting its own marginalization.

The US is the big winner. China the big loser.

Welcome to the new great game.

Hormuz Miscalculation

Sec Bessent gets it.

Iran has mistaken a tactical threat for a durable advantage. By repeatedly signaling its willingness to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran hasn’t strengthened its hand, it has accelerated the market’s exit.
Capital does not tolerate… https://t.co/ObF8rUd8nM

— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy)August 8, 2026