Why We Should Attack Iran - Why We Shouldn't

Ever since President Carter decided to abandon the Shah of Iran in 1979, Iran has been a thorn in the side of the United States and much of the West. Instead of a pro-West Shah, we now deal with a group of crazed Muslim clerics headed by the craziest of them all, Sayyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei who, like his predecessor, is determined to keep Iran in the 7th century, and conducts an orchestra of millions that regularly sings 'Death to America.'

For sure Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was an imperfect leader, but he was our imperfect leader. He was pro-West, our ally, determined to bring his country into the then 20th century. Because of President Carter's indecision, his inability to properly assess the risk, and his ineptitude in carrying out decisions, we now have to deal with a country that is the biggest state supporter of terrorism around the world...thank you President Carter. The leader of the Iranian revolution was the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who was exiled in 1964 for not going along with the program of modernization. His major complaints were that the Shah was reducing the vast Muslim estates and giving women equal rights. After the Shah left the country, compliments of Mr. Peanut, Khomeini slithered back to Iran and promised social justice (sound familiar?) and the turning of the clock back 1200 years. The fact that they are still promising social justice after 30 years tells you something. Before anyone drones on about the Shah's political prisoners, it is not well known that the leader of the revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, for all his religiosity, held massive executions of political prisoners in 1988. They loaded six prisoners at a time into forklift trucks and hung them from cranes in half-hour intervals. Estimates are anywhere between 4,500 and 30,000 dead, hung in public in front of children...barbarous? It continues today.

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There are many reasons why seeing the end of the Iran regime is enticing. Their sponsorship of terrorism, their development of nuclear weapons and their willingness to use them, defying the world...their open threats against the United States and Israel, their support of insurgencies against Iraq and Afghanistan making stability difficult, if not near impossible. We may not ever again in our lifetime be in a more advantageous military position - having troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan, surrounding Iran. Iran remains one of the most repressive regimes in the world, especially for women and non-Muslims. The reasons against any invasion are equally, if not more desirable. World opinion against us would be legion. The majority of our citizens, I believe, would be against it. If we decide to put boots on the ground, which I think President Trump would not do, you can bet on thousands of U.S. casualties. There would be large civilian deaths. It would be unknown as to the number of deaths if we just made an airstrike. With any ground war, you can bet on a large-scale guerrilla campaign against the United States and our allies. We would be straining our military while we are in the process of rebuilding it. We would run the risk of a major terrorist campaign against the United States from terrorist groups that probably are already in our country thanks to our de facto open borders these past years. Terrorist attacks would be unleashed in Europe due to their massive Muslim populations. The economic cost would be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Lastly, there is always the possibility that President Trump, like other presidents before him, does not fully trust the CIA, that they might have their own agenda.

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There is the potential of a much less costly approach to Iran. For one thing... Israel. The state of Israel has no patience for aggression or terrorist states in their neighborhood since they have the most to lose. Allow them to do the heavy lifting for the time being. Iran knows that any sizable attack on Israel would be met with a massive strike by Israel, the United States and our allies and with world opinion and support on our side. A covert CIA-led war using pro-American groups within Iran may also be the way to go. Increasing the economic strangle-hold on Iran, though slow in results, should also be considered. We, of course, do not have access to the intelligence that the President and the government have, but, just on the surface, a war with Iran seems unwise, at least for now. In love, war and making money, timing is everything. But unlike love and money, war is always a last resort.