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Summer heat waves are deadly, but winter is deadlier

Cold Versus Heat Deaths



Cold Versus Heat DeathsUsually when the media discusses climate change, there is a focus on the increased number of deaths that may be caused by heat waves and natural catastrophes. Some examples: • Killer heat waves responsible for deaths recorded across the US and Europe. 1 • Heat waves are the deadliest form of extreme weather, responsible for more deaths in the US every year than the combined effects of hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods. 2
Surprise! Surprise!- People are far likelier to die during the winter. Recent data released from The Centers For Disease Control show very clearly that the heart of winter—December, January, and February—are the deadliest months of the year. This may seem counter intuitive given how much of the media hype summer heat waves. But the reality is that the summer months are actually the safest.3 Another study, a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates, aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions form heat and cold from moderate and extreme temperatures. Data were collected from 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, UK, and USA.4 Researchers analyzed 74,225,200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. More temperature attributable deaths were caused by cold (7.29%) than by heat (0.42%). Here is a table showing the ratio of cold to heat deaths for various countries.

Ratio of cold to heat deaths

Country Ratio Cold to Heat
Australia11:1
Brazil 6:1
Canada13:1
Japan 27:1
South Korea37:1
Spain4:1
Switzerland1.5:1
UK28:1
USA25:1
IrelandCold 9.34%, heat 0%

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Australia has had the hottest temperatures for a thousand years (according to some). They have 'shattered records' yet, even so, at the peak of this hot era-six times as many Australians were felled by cold weather. A study on Australian deaths from 2000-2009 found that heat, cold and temperature variability killed 42,000 people which was about 6% of all deaths. Of those temeprature related deaths 60% were due to cold, while 28% were due to sudden changes in temperature. A mere 10% were due to heat.5 Alex Berezow suggests we can draw three conclusions from this information:
  1. Summer heat waves are deadly, but winter is deadlier
  2. Winter is deadlier because of cold temperatures and influenza
  3. Any projections about the impact of climate change on weather-related deaths must take #1 and #2 into account.3
References
  1. Nicole Fisher, Killer heat waves: what to know to stay safe as records break around the world,” forbes.com, July 28, 2019
  2. Kevin Loria, “Heat waves are the deadliest form of extreme weather, responsible for more deaths in the US every year than the combined effects of hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods,” Business Insider, July 19, 2019
  3. Alex Berezow, “More people die in winter than summer,” American Council on Science and Health, July 10, 2019
  4. Antonio Gasparrini et al., “Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study,” Lancet, 386,369, July 25, 2015
  5. Joanne Nova, “Despite record heat, six times as many people die of cold in Australia not heat,” JoanneNova, October 20, 2018


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Jack Dini -- Bio and Archives

Jack Dini is author of Challenging Environmental Mythology.  He has also written for American Council on Science and Health, Environment & Climate News, and Hawaii Reporter.


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