Appointment Of Al-Qaeda Interim Leader Has Strategic, Symbolic Consequences

Numerous reports Tuesday indicate al-Qaeda leaders have chosen former Egyptian special forces commander Saif al-Adel (AKA Muhammad Ibrahim Makkawi) as interim leader of the international Islamist terrorist network. The appointment of al-Adel is significant for many reasons and if confirmed will have a major effect on al-Qaeda’s future look and strategy.

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First, the obvious. Al-Adel will effectively leapfrog Osama bin Laden’s longtime deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, also an Egyptian, in both symbolic and operational duties. This is no small feat for an al-Qaeda commander who spent a good portion of the last ten years under loosely guarded house arrest in Iran. Many experts believe that al-Adel is currently based in Pakistan, after he was released from Iranian custody in April 2010, along with Saad bin Laden, Osama bin Laden's son, and al-Qaeda operatives Suleiman al-Gaith and Mahfouz al-Walid. Long considered a senior leader within the network, al-Adel (which is an alias meaning “Sword of the Just”) has been tied to the 1998 US embassy bombings in Africa, terror plots across Europe, and the 2003 compound bombings in Riyadh. What’s unique about al-Adel, however, is that he has publicly criticized al-Qaeda’s branch leaders for actions he calls “mostly random”. A 2005 al-Qaeda planning booklet authored by al-Adel reveals instead his preference for tactics that serve to advance the larger goal of creating Islamic states. It is for this precise reason that he is believed to have opposed the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York City, which led, effectively, to al-Qaeda loosing its base of operations in Taliban-governed Afghanistan. Counter-terrorism experts believe that al-Adel has a unique strategic preference for smaller attacks, which, though less sensational, could occur more often and aim to wear down Western populations and governments psychologically. In 2010, when al-Adel was made chief commander of al-Qaeda’s international operations, The Telegraph wrote that his “new attrition strategy marks the triumph of a minority faction within al-Qaeda who had opposed the 9/11 attacks. It is important to note, however, that al-Adel has not yet been confirmed as the next leader of al-Qaeda. To earn that title he needs the religious oath of allegiance, known as baya, from leaders of al-Qaeda’s major affiliates, especially those in Yemen, North Africa and Pakistan. This process may not go over smoothly as many al-Qaeda commanders could object to al-Adel, preferring instead a more natural successor in al-Zawahiri. Additionally, it appears that al-Adel’s appointment as “caretaker” of the international network was not made by al-Qaeda’s shura council, whose members are unable to meet safely for fear of US drone strikes. By these measures al-Adel’s appointment as interim leader could present major problems for al-Qaeda, whose top leaders in Pakistan are believed to have made the move in an effort to dampen growing speculation that their leadership was in organization tatters. An evaluation process is likely underway and the reaction of al-Qaeda affiliate commanders will be telling. For now, despite their best effort, al-Qaeda’s top leaders continue to look strategically and symbolically disconnected.