Dare to Question Windsor and St. Thomas EV Future

Will the behemoth electric-vehicle factories built in the southern Ontario cities of Windsor and St. Thomas be mothballed into the world’s largest trade centers and flea markets? The Federal government is handing over nearly $30 billion in Canadian taxpayer’s money to foreign corporations -Volkswagen, Stellantis, and LG on a single boom or bust wager that EV’s are the way of the future. Questioning this ‘Green Deal’ will certainly be unpopular but let’s at least take a deeper dive.

What makes anyone think the EV dream will be any different of a failure than the billions of tax-dollars subsidised wind-power in Ontario

One only has to look back to another much-touted cost of going green when billions of tax-dollars subsidised wind-power in Ontario that saw foreign companies reap the rewards and quickly fold their tents. The cost of this green deal is estimated by Ontario’s auditor general to total $170 billion over 30 years. The promise by the Ontario liberal government of thousands of renewable jobs never materialized; however, the promise of manageable electricity bills was broken. What makes anyone think the EV dream will be any different of a failure?

The government is cheering the 5,500 anticipated new jobs that will be created at these two facilities. Who can argue with this amazing headline. It will take over 50 years for the new jobs to pay back the government’s infusion, not including the interest on the debt. What guarantee do we have that these plants and the spin-offs will be around for decade much less 50-plus years? What is not being shared is the impact on job loss related to the demise of the internal-combustion engine (ICE) powertrains.

Ford and GM have already began eliminating jobs and have recently pulled back on EV production due to low demand

Some experts claim that, with fewer parts under the hood, EV’s require 30% to 40% less labour than gasoline vehicles. By some estimates, upwards of 80,000 auto workers and a similar number in the auto supply chain have already been laid-off globally to support the EV transition. The European Automotive Suppliers study forecasts a loss of upwards to 500,000 related to the ICE while the Boston Consulting Group’s analysis of the European auto industry says about 930,000 existing auto manufacturing and supplier jobs will disappear by 2030. Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda stated that moving solely to battery EV’s would risk losing the majority of 5.5 million jobs in the Japanese industry.

Ford and GM have already began eliminating jobs and have recently pulled back on EV production due to low demand. Windsor and St. Thomas are no strangers in living through the ups and downs in the auto sector resulting some of the highest unemployment numbers in the country. St. Thomas shuttered the Ford Assembly Plant that once employed 3,600 workers at its peak and the Daimler AG truck plant was chopped with 1,400 jobs lost. The Windsor GM transmission and trim plants closed resulting in 3,500 jobs lost at its peak as well as the Chrysler Pillette utility van closure that wiped out 2,000 jobs. Will history repeat itself?

The Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has targeted 100 percent zero-emissions vehicle sales by 2035

There are those who argue the green transformation will result in new skilled jobs, however these experts have no concrete numbers in knowing when those jobs will come online, how many, and where the jobs will be located. We must be prepared that the negative offset of new EV jobs in southern Ontario will not nearly compensate for the layoffs when the traditional powertrain industry is decimated. Are the labour unions fully aware of the potential unemployment collapse of their members or are they complicit in the transformation?

The Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has targeted 100 percent zero-emissions vehicle sales by 2035 with aggressive increments towards the mandate. This government is spending another $1.2 billion of taxpayer’s money to build 84,000 public charging stations for those who can afford the EVs. There are currently less than 20,000 public chargers available in Canada; far short of the estimated 657,142 needed by 2030. Will the government cough up another $10 billion of debt to get the job done?

We haven’t even comprehended the millions of chargers required in households, private and government sector parking lots, not to mention the millions of Canadians living in apartments and condominiums. Will Canadians be fighting for a charger late into the night? The stress put on drivers to find a charger means they have to locate one, wait in line behind other frustrated drivers, and further wait for the charge. One also must hope and pray the unreliable charger continues to work in frigid Canadian winters, not to mention the fear that the charge will drop twice as fast in colder temperatures leaving your family stranded on a highway in life threatening conditions. We must now pack survival kits.

Where will the millions of highly toxic batteries be dumped?

Will the transformation to EVs truly be environmentally friendly? What will be the carbon footprint to generate massive amounts of electricity to charge millions of vehicles, buses, and the trucking industry. More pressing will be the additional impact on your already parabolic rising electrical bills with untold numbers of vehicles plugged in at home along with air conditions through the hot and sticky nights. Most likely, we will have to choose one over the other to pay the inflationary bills. Do we expect brown outs and black outs on grid? What will be the source to generate the enormous amount of electricity required to charge everyone’s EV. More carbon is the only feasible solution to build out the massive network as noticed by the huge transmission lines currently being erected along the 401 corridors.

Where will the millions of highly toxic batteries be dumped and what will the impact be on the local environment. Have we heard from the climate change activists over the scorched earth mining required to manufacture the batteries in comparison to drilling for oil. Mineral market analysis company Benchmark estimates that least 74 lithium mines, 55 cobalt mines, 64 nickel mines and 97 graphite mines will be required to meet the EV demand. Have we truly analysed the impact on the environment?

Sliding demand for EVs and the politics surrounding climate change policy

The most consequential impact is sliding demand for EVs and the politics surrounding climate change policy. To put demand into perspective, GM is significantly trimming production to only 200,000 EVs in 2024. Sales of GM’s all-electric vehicles was miniscule during the first quarter totaling 16,425 units or only 2.8% of the automakers overall sales during the period. This is a terrible sign for Windsor and St. Thomas.

A newly elected Donald Trump administration in the US and a Pierre Poilievre Conservative majority in Canada changing direction on EV production could throw a wrench into the sustainability of EVs. Whether it is ‘drill baby drill’ under Trump that allows the consumer to choose their means of transportation or ‘axe the carbon tax’ under Poilievre scrapping Trudeau’s zero-emissions mandate, the massive $30 billion in Windsor and St. Thomas may be one of the biggest boondoggles in Canadian history.

Perhaps the massive factories the size of hundreds of football fields can be converted into a mini city of affordable housing. Enormous flea markets might just be the best tourist attraction that we can bet on. If anything, Windsor and St. Thomas will certainly benefit from the taxpayer funded highways, overpasses and roadways leading into the cities. Let’s all hope for the best for these two Ontario communities.