Domino One: Bahrain

Khalifas are Sunni. Two thirds of Bahraini nationals were Shiite

The Bahrainian Archipelago’s population of water spring dependent agriculturalists and fisherfolk stabilized at 40,000 for millennia. Chevron struck oil in 1931. Bahrain’s 1941 census counted 89,970. By 2025 Bahrain’s 1.6 million inhabitants squeezed onto 30 natural, and 50 artificial, islands spanning 770 square kilometers. Driving the King Fahd Causeway from Manama (pop: 700,000) to Saudi Arabia’s Damman (2.7 million) took one hour.

Bahrain was 3% farmland, 1% forest. Scorching summers sowed sandstorms. 90% of potable water sprang from gas-fueled desalination. 90% of food came through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iterations of “Iranians” ruled the area from 539 to 330 BC, then from 240 to 628 AD. In 1602 they overran the Portuguese fort, holding the archipelago until 1783 when Ahmed ‘the Conqueror’ Al-Khalifa made the fort his home. Brits introduced themselves in 1816. Treaties inked later that century turned Bahrain into a British protectorate. The Shah insisted Bahrain was his until Bahraini independence, 1971.

In 2025 citizens (“nationals”) numbered 750,000. Foreigners (“expatriates”) numbered 850,000. Expats filled 95% of private sector jobs. Expats got arrested for quitting their jobs. Expats needed employer-signed certificates to leave Bahrain. Expats had to emigrate within 30 days of dismissal. No union rights, no voting rights; no litigation rights – taxpaying tenants all.

Khalifas are Sunni. Two thirds of Bahraini nationals were Shiite. King Hamad kept religious stats secret while giving Sunni Pakistanis priority naturalizations. A 1981 Shiite revolt, led by an Iran-based cleric, got crushed. A 2011 Shiite rising wrought 80 extrajudicial killings and thousands of warrantless detentions in torture camps. At war’s outbreak in 2026 police began abductions. Two weeks later 157 were held incommunicado; one was tortured to death.

The 1970s Lebanese Civil War drove financiers from Beirut to Bahrain

In 2025 oil brought in 60% of export earnings and 70% of government revenue. State-owned, BAPCO, pumped 150,000 barrels of day (bpd) to its 300-000 bpd refinery, kept busy with another 150,000 bpd arriving via Saudi pipeline. Locally produced gas went toward electricity, desalination and smelting. BAPCO gas flows, for now. BAPCO oil doesn’t.

The 1970s Lebanese Civil War drove financiers from Beirut to Bahrain. By 2025, some 400 financial firms (Citibank, JPMorgan Chase, Blackrock, Goldman Sachs) employed 15,000 in Bahrain, including 5,000 expats who supercharged fellow expats for banking and investment services; and oversaw mega-billions in Western investment.

Subsidized conventions, spectacles and theme parks grew Bahrain’s hotel room inventory to 20,000, and its tourism workforce to over 21,000 employees. (Marriott, Hyatt, Hilton, Wyndham and Radisson collectively run 560 hotels around the Gulf.)

Hoteliers and financiers liked it “asset lite.” Al-Khalifas, and five Bahraini clans, owned Manama’s glistening skyline. Western multinationals may have been anchor tenants in glamorous towers bearing their logos; but tenants they remained. Cashflows were awesome but, when the gig was up, managers left keys in doors and cruised the King Fahd Causeway. Could Khalifas do likewise?

Premier Group manages $20 billion worth of King Hamad’s personal assets. These include scores of UK properties, like the London Marriott, Four Seasons Park Lane, and Hamad’s new palace, the $165 million, 2,000-acre Glympton Estate. Bahraini royals also hold a substantial interest in Manama-based Investcorp – owner of around 1,500 buildings across the USA.

Aluminum Bahrain will outlive Bahrain. Khalifas will retain possession

Hamad isn’t as poor as he looks – once one dispatches legal fictions regarding state assets and medievalist monarchs. A dozen constitutional clauses grant Bahrain’s King capricious power. Hamad is Chief Justice. Hamad appoints all judges. Hamad is Commander-in-Chief. Hamad appoints all generals. More to our point: directors and executives of state entities, like Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) and Mumtalakat Holding Company, are selected by, and serve at the pleasure of, His Excellency. CEOs and Chairmen are blood relatives.

Mumtalakat owns Aluminum Bahrain (Alba, est. 1969). An inhouse 4,200 megawatt BAPCO-fueled powerplant guaranteed success. In 2025 Alba’s 3,100 workers smelted 1.6 million tonnes ($3,400 per). Thousands also worked in aluminum fabrication firms, part-owned by Khalifas.

Alba was smelting through its alumina stockpile and rushing the metal to Damman when drones struck on March 29. The plant will be stripped of movables, as will be done to BAPCO facilities… and to Bahrain’s A.I. centers, and museums…

Khalifas won’t squander 57 years of aluminum knowhow. Months before the war, they contractually committed $2 billion toward new US aluminum production. Three days into the war, they bought Belgium’s Aluminum Dunkerque for $1.2 billion; augmenting their existing European aluminum operations. Aluminum Bahrain will outlive Bahrain. Khalifas will retain possession.

Mumtalakat-owned Gulf Air stays profitable in the competitive Asian market flying 6 million passengers annually. Gulf Air owns 34 Airbus 320s ($100 million per) and 11 Boeing Dreamliners ($300 million). At first crack of war, Gulf Air switched headquarters to Dammam and ditched Manama as a destination.

Mumtalakat-owned Mclaren makes 2,500 cars a year, average price: $350,000.

If Royal Khalifas ain’t going down with the ship, does anyone think the Royal Bahrain Armed Forces will?

Crown Prince Salman al-Khalifa is Mumtalakat Chairman. (Salman moonlights as Bahrain’s Finance Minister.) Abdullah al-Khalifa is CEO.

Legendary pearl mongers, Khalifas remain in the biz. Aside from pearl inventories, Hamad’s “royal jewels” were appraised at $1 billion. His family’s horde is worth several times that. Khalifas host Jewelry Arabia whereat Princess Dana reigns. A fav of Hamad’s, Dana retails jewelry whilst sprouting eye-popping custom pieces. Khalifas swarm atop the CBB in whose vaults languish 4.5 tonnes of gold.

CBB foreign bank deposits dwarf CBB gold reserves. Few obstacles obstruct Khalifa appropriation. In most jurisdictions, the only intervenors with standing would be holders of Bahrain’s $12 billion foreign debt. Said creditors are Gulf monarchs. Hamad can easily service these debts, or settle them. CBB accounts are his for the draining.

Khalifas speak English well enough to graduate from British and American universities. They possess citizenships to those countries, and spend much time there. If Royal Khalifas ain’t going down with the ship, does anyone think the Royal Bahrain Armed Forces will?

RBAF’s 19,000 warriors are mainly Pakistani cheque-cashers with low morale and zero combat experience. The Royal Navy boasts 700 sailors. Their amphibious fleet totals 8 small, seldom seen beAch-landing craft of questionable readiness.

Iran’s landing fleet could disgorge 200 armored fighting vehicles and 2,000 commandos onto Bahraini beaches in minutes. More probably: Iranian midget-subs, semi-submersibles and swimmer delivery vehicles will undetectably deposit frogmen along the 80-island archipelago’s ill-defended 330-kilometer shoreline. Frogmen arm insurgents. Frogmen prepare beachheads. Forget boots on the ground. Think flippers on the sand.

Some Links

• US troops sheltering in hotels and US troops fleeing Bahrain bases and US troops fight from hotels
• In Bahrain Sympathy for Iran takes on Sectarian Significance (repression as of March 23)
• Princess Dana and her jewelry
• King Hamad
• Crown Prince Salman
• Some Al-Khalifa US real estate holdings
• Crown Prince Salman promises $17 billion in investments into USA (2025)
• Bahrain UK Assets
• Gulf Air and Gulf Air Fleet and Gulf Air moves to Dammam
• Premier Group and Investcorp
• Al-Khalifas take full control of Mclaren
• Mclaren
• Aluminum Bahrain (Alba)
• Alba 2025 $2 billion into US Aluminum
• Alba 2026 purchase of Aluminum Dunkerque
• Mumtalakat Fund Board of Directors
• Central Bank of Bahrain Board