By Ian R. Campbell ——Bio and Archives--November 1, 2012
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No one, economist or otherwise, can blithely assume that history will repeat itself when forecasting. Instead, one must review history and adjust it to reflect changed and changing forecast inputs and outputs that result from adjustments and structural alterations that have occurred between the time the historic results were generated and the time a current forecast is being made.In simple terms I believe the author’s position to be, which position I agree with, that it makes absolutely no sense to generate a ‘next five year’ forecast in 2012 for the U.S. economy based on the economic performance of the U.S. economy from 1980 to 2000 when the financial underpinnings and jobs mix (to note only two of many important changes) are entirely different in 2012 and prospectively than they were in those prior years.
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Ian R. Campbell, FCA, FCBV, is a recognized Canadian business valuation authority who shares his perspective about the economy, mining and the oil & gas industry on each trading day. Ian is also the founder of Stock Research Portal, which provides stock market data, analysis and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges.
Note: The Commentary and information above is provided ‘AS IS’ and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice.