It makes absolutely no sense to generate a ‘next five year’ forecast in 2012 for the U.S. economy based on the economic performance of the U.S. economy from 1980 to 2000
A recent article that uses a recent Goldman Sachs analyst forecast on China’s long-term growth rate as a bridge to discuss the methodologies employed by economists when making forecasts – and why the author thinks that most economists mis-forecast and simply miss prospective economic change (such as the 2008 financial crisis) because of those methodologies.
