While Hamas attempts to send a strong military message to the IDF last week, by stating that it "responded…appropriately" to Israel’s on-foot incursion into Gaza late Friday, there is no doubt in my mind the game is about politics rather than military. There are two sides to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and one of them plays it smart. Sadly, it is not us.
Israel made tactical mistakes one after another: first, announcing Jerusalem construction plans during John Biden’s visit – giving the Americans perfect excuse to pressure Israel into submission; allowing Palestinian PM Abbas to take the initiative on the talks – making Israel look unwilling to play any political game; then stepping into Gaza, giving Hamas a way to blame Israel for violence once again. The current crisis is not Israel’s fault – but it sure as hell could be avoided by playing smart.
Hamas knows to use a good opportunity to cry wolf. Golani Major Peretz made a correct decision to pursue a terror cell into Gaza’s territory to halt IED positioning by the cell – a practice used daily by Hamas and subsequent groups, causing – at times – disastrous consequences. Yet, Haniyeh knows his practices rarely make it to first page of the New York Times, while Israel’s incursions are widely condemned by the likes of Thomas Freidman, who believe Hamas is all white and fluffy. Moreover, Mashaal and his minions understand full well that any Israeli military step could easily be turned against the Jewish state – particularly now, when Netanyahu’s government already gave Americans enough to demand the transfer of Abu-Dis, near Jerusalem, to Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah. Khaled Mashaal’s wet dream is to have the opportunity to fire few rockets at the Knesset – with little to no consequences to himself.
To be honest, there was no way Israel could avoid Hamas’ show of military prowess – poor as it might be. One way or another, Ismail Haniyeh’s men would find a way to engage IDF troops and use the always willing press to distribute pictures of the wounded and killed. According to Palestinian sources, Israel’s nightly incursion into Gaza with several tanks and bulldozers left a "fighter" wounded – but it is unlikely the "fighter" term would find its way into AP’s wire.
To the disdain of the Americans, Israel holds great power in the region. Israel is the sole player who could easily dismantle any effort on the part of President Obama to reconcile with the Arab world. Israel could set the whole Middle East on fire, crashing American interests in the Gulf, Egypt and Syria. Finally, Israel is America’s foot in the door to hearts and minds of Arab leaders, with administrations able to restrain or unleash Israel at will, pressuring Arab partners into certain concessions.
Israel’s acceptance of the rules of the game is what makes its position weak – and it is time to take the initiative. While Netanyahu lost the opportunity to take the frying pan off the fire, he surely could turn the situation to his advantage. For example, it is likely to be in Israel’s interests to announce a two-month construction freeze inside Arab-populated areas of Jerusalem, keeping the area frozen to a reasonable minimum. Such a freeze would allow Israel to place the ball in PA’s court, putting an end to Abbas’ constant whining and lifting some of the weight placed by Secretary of State Clinton off Jews’ shoulders.
Winning points vis-à-vis Hamas would be harder, but not impossible. Sad, but true – repeated small-scale incursions into Gaza bear no fruit, while a large-scale operation would be widely criticized by the international community. Thus, the only real leverage Israel has is its crossings. With Egypt setting up its own barrier against Hamas smuggling – not impassable, but much harder to penetrate – Israel’s only viable option is to leave any ground and sea units off Gaza and declare that any attack from Gaza Strip – be it a rocket attack or an IED – would result in closure of the crossings for a day, thus preventing transfer of hundreds of tons of supplies. Before implementing the strategy, it is Minister Lieberman’s job to widely publicize the strategy and the outcome of a possible attack. Israel should make it clear: we play fair and we will not attack; yet, we will not tolerate fire on our soldiers and citizens. The IAF could be used to drop hundreds of thousands of leaflets, announcing to Gaza’s citizens that any armed assault against Israel’s South would have grave consequences.
The above strategy would, in fact, hurt Hamas. In the past months, the group fiercely opposed Egypt’s project to stop underground smuggling into Gaza, with Haniyeh’s men realizing things could go South if they would have no way to feed Gazans. For now, the markets are full of food; however, the supply will dry fast if all the routes would be closed. Arab states’ clear indifference to Hamas’ struggle – clearly portrayed after Israel’s operation "Cast Lead" – makes the situation all the more gloomy.
Playing the game on your own terms takes political courage rarely seen here in the past two decades. Yet, it could change the view of Netanyahu from weasely politician to a national hero. No doubt, he should take it.
My name’s Jonathan Boyko. I am 24 y/o PC tech guy, working in Jerusalem, Israel. Prior to my current work, I served for three years in the Israeli Defense Force, Combat Engineering Corps., which told me a lot.
My views are usually conservative, although I am far from being far Right. I believe I hold sane views. For example: I believe radical Islam should be battled against, hard – but that does not label all Muslims as terrorists. I believe the Israeli electoral system should be changed immediately – but presidential rule really would not work in Israel. I believe the ultra-orthodox in Israel shouldn’t be forced to serve in the military – but should be forced to do at least a year’s service for the country (within civilian infrastructure).
