By Dr. David Whitehouse,
Global Warming Policy Foundation
You won’t find this paper mentioned in any of the mainstream press (in the UK at least), which is curious. In journalistic as well as scientific terms it is a good story if a little un-PC; Nature in the Arctic is more resilient than we thought and there are unlikely to be any “tipping points” encountered as the sea-ice declines for whatever length of time it occurs.
Tipping Points, or non-linear phenomenon as they were called in more sober days, have become quite fashionable. This is because they proffer imminent disaster as nature takes an accelerated path to catastrophe. Tipping points can be anywhere and you may stumble upon them anytime, and in such a complex system as the environment their existence cannot be disproved. They are ideal then for campaigning and alarmist rhetoric masquerading as science. Beware, we might be edging towards a tipping point.
Ice, if you read the literature, is the key tipping point substance. It can’t be trusted to behave in a linear, sensible and predictable manner. It is particularly treacherous when smeared over the North Pole. In recent years its summer extent has been decreasing (at least to 2007, there are signs of a recovery since then) and that coupled with the common conclusion from models that it is the polar regions where the effects of man-made global warming will be felt first (and the temperature grids show this is so – the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula are the fastest warming places on Earth). Some polar regions however refuse to comply.
China backs shale revolution
Peter Foster,
Financial Post
Encana's announcement on Wednesday of a proposed $5.4-billion investment by PetroChina in its shale gas operations confirms the soaring importance of a resource that 10 years ago was hardly on the commercial map.
It also looks like a nice piece of timing, since it came before Encana's revelation Thursday that slumping natural gas prices had continued to hit earnings in the fourth quarter, although this was hardly unexpected.
The market liked the news of the Chinese investment much more than it disliked the earnings dip, and Encana shares put on 4.5% to close at $32.02. PetroChina shares, by contrast, fell on the news, since the Chinese company's purchase price embeds a significant premium to current depressed North American gas prices. One key issue is how long those prices are likely to stay down. Given the huge supply potential of shale gas, that could be quite a while. The commitment certainly seems to confirm China's long-term orientation, because it comes at a time when the North American market is awash with gas, Canadian gas exports to the U.S. continue to slump, and there is no other place for natural gas currently to go. PetroChina's investment is undoubtedly being made with an eye to the planned $3.5-billion project to ship LNG out of Kitimat and link Canadian gas to Asian markets. As such it should be welcome to Ottawa. There is little reason to see why the federal government would raise any objections to the deal.
Holland slashes carbon targets, shuns wind for nuclear: We can't afford to be Groene
By Andrew Orlowski,
The Register
In a radical change of policy, the Netherlands is reducing its targets for renewable energy and slashing the subsidies for wind and solar power. It's also given the green light for the country's first new nuclear power plants for almost 40 years.
Why the change? Wind and solar subsidies are too expensive, the Financial Times Deutschland , reports.
Holland thus becomes the first country to abandon the EU-wide target of producing 20 per cent of its domestic power from renewables. This is a remarkable turnaround from a state that took the Kyoto Agreement seriously and chivvied other EU members into adopting renewable energy strategies. The FT reports that instead of the €4bn annual subsidy, it will be slashed to €1.5bn
