Ottawa’s Climate Plans “Irresponsible”

Testimony of ICSC-Canada’s Tom Harris before the City of Ottawa Environment and Climate Change Committee – 18/04/23 (video of testimony may be see here). Note the logically fallacious attack from Councillor Sean Devine after Mr. Harris’ testimony and Mr. Harris’ response.

Thank you Chair. I’m Tom Harris, Executive Director of International Climate Science Coalition – Canada. I am a resident of Councillor Devine’s ward.

I would like to congratulate those of you who were on Council when the Climate Change Master Plan was passed for your inclusion of adaptation to climate change.

However, despite the City’s assertion that “Ottawa must be an energy conscious city where people can live, work and play in all future climate conditions,” cooling adaptation is ignored. This, despite the fact that cooling is very threatening for a high latitude city like Ottawa. A study in the British Medical journal The Lancet found that,

“Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries.”

Twenty times more people die from the cold than the heat!

If a power failure like that which occurred in Texas happened in Ottawa in the depths of winter, and we had gotten rid of most reliable power, we would likely see huge numbers of casualties. Local air pollution would soar as citizens increasingly resorted to fossil fuel-powered home generators.

A secure and prosperous city is impossible with a weak electrical grid, and Ottawa’s grid would be the weakest imaginable if our Climate Change Master Plan is ever fully enabled. Electricity-powered systems have been found to fail far more often than those powered by natural gas or any other energy source. Greater electrification means lower reliability. And when they fail, the results can be catastrophic.

The Climate Change Master Plan asserts that in Ottawa, “On average, summers are getting hotter…” This is true but irrelevant. For example, Ottawa airport summer maximum temperatures have not increased at all. Other Ottawa temperature stations display similar trends with the station at Hog’s Back even showing a reduction in maximum temperatures over the years. The mean Ottawa summer temperature is increasing slightly due to the minimum at night increasing, which is not a threat of course.

Temperature trends apparently follow in accordance with solar cycles, and indeed, we may be entering a Grand Solar Minimum when the Sun could be at its weakest in 300 years. This could result in significant cooling, something Ottawa needs to prepare for.

Professor Valentina Zharkova at Northumbria University in the UK, wrote in the journal Temperature:

“This period [during which the Sun produces less energy] has started in the Sun in 2020 and will last until 2053. During this modern grand minimum, one would expect to see a reduction of the average terrestrial temperature by up to 1.0°C, especially, during the periods of solar minima … in the decade 2031–2043.”

Dr. Zharkova continues:

“The reduction of a terrestrial temperature during the next 30 years can have important implications for different parts of the planet on growing vegetation, agriculture, food supplies, and heating needs in both Northern and Southern hemispheres. This global cooling during the upcoming grand solar minimum can offset for three decades any signs of global warming and would require inter-government efforts to tackle problems with heat and food supplies for the whole population of the Earth.”

During a previous grand solar minimum, the Maunder minimum between 1645 and 1715, glaciers expanded and the Thames River in England frequently froze over. It never freezes now, of course.

As the seventh coldest capital city in the world, it is irresponsible for Ottawa to only prepare for warming when cooling is far more dangerous and, some scientists say, more likely. It would be like going camping in an area known to be infested with black bears and mosquitos and only planning for the mosquitos. Yes, the bugs can drive you crazy, but the bears can kill you. Similarly, heat in Ottawa is not fatal except for the elderly and other vulnerable citizens, people we need to protect. But everyone can die when it is -30 with no heat.

Consequently, I ask the committee to direct city staff to incorporate preparation for cooling into the Climate Change Master Plan.

I welcome your comments and questions.

Tom Harris is Executive Director of Director of International Climate Science Coalition – Canada.

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