Britain’s status in the EU: Politicians have long been accused of corruption and incompetence but now open contradiction is becoming a matter of Tory policy
Politicians have long been accused of corruption and incompetence but now open contradiction is becoming a matter of Tory policy. It could be that David Cameron has been spending too much time with Barack Obama and has recognized that submitting opposing ideas together creates enough confusion to allow him to accomplish whatever he wants.
In something right out of George Orwell’s 1984, the government plans to introduce competing policies in the same legislation in order to head off dissent in his own party. More than kerfuffle the P.M. simply doesn’t have enough support amongst Conservatives to pass their own legislation, thus the government’s position has more support from the opposition than from themselves.
The Queen’s speech, every May, sets out the broad legislative objectives of the cabinet for the year. The sticking point has become Britain’s status in the EU. While Cameron pursues the objective of an EU deal with the United States, a growing majority in his party want to end their membership in the European Union altogether. Continuation is supported by the Tories Lib-Dem. coalition partners and by the leading opposition Labour Party.
Pressure has mounted since a strong anti EU vote in elections 2 weeks ago, buoyed by last month’s YouGov survey showing voters favoured exit by a 43-35 margin. The Prime Minister has responded in the worst possible way by trying to forge a middle position that satisfies no one. Indeed, in a rare moment of accuracy, Shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander said the publication of the draft Bill showed Mr. Cameron had lost control of his party.
Legislation is being drafted to require an amendment to the Queens speech which will require an in-out national referendum on EU membership in 2017. Cameron’s stated plan is to negotiate with Brussels for a better deal for Britain in the meantime. The amendment does not have support from the Lib.-Dems. who form part of the government majority and so it will be blocked. It is hoped that a Conservative MP will adopt it as a private member. It still won’t pass but then Cameron will try to have it both ways saying he favours the referendum but is also trying to negotiate a better deal for Britain with the EU. In reality, there is no chance that the EU will re-negotiate its relationship with the UK.
In the meantime a sizable and vocal part of the Conservative Party is planning to vote against the Queen’s speech, an embarrassing situation for the P.M. in that he may be able to garner more support for his proposals from other parties than from his own.
Foreign Secretary William Hague doubled down on Cameron’s doublethink. “We had a range of options. We would have done this or some other similar option because we do want to reinforce our commitment, The Prime Minister said before the local elections, before the UKIP local election results, that we were looking for ways of doing that and open to ways of doing that. (the Tories are) solidly committed and very united (behind having a referendum)”. Hague, talking to Sky News, claimed the draft Bill would force Labour and the Lib Dems to "show their hand" and when asked whether the move was an admission of a failure of trust, he responded: "No, I think what we are doing here is strengthening our commitment."
The Foreign Secretary’s statement is about as convincing as a schoolboy caught plagiarizing homework. The Tories are in trouble on this. Not because of what happens legislatively but because they are losing the confidence of the British people and are unlikely to be able to recover. Cameron predictably bulldozes forward like a horse with blinkers who doesn’t realize there’s been a false start.
Given the growing dissent within party circles and the party leaderships equal determination to dismiss it one has to think that the camel’s back will soon be broken. There are 3 probable outcomes to this over the next 2 years…
Party gridlock remains leading to heavy electoral defeat in the 2014 Euros and 2015 parliamentary general election. Cameron would then lose a party leadership election if he didn’t resign. However, likely victory for the government in the Scottish referendum next year may yet rescue the P.M.
After a private proverbial slapping from party leaders Cameron realizes that his position is untenable and begins to move toward party majority positions in a desperate attempt to save himself.
There is a leadership challenge to Cameron. A conventional candidate like Michael Gove or Theresa May, both known to be more eurosceptic, may succeed, but in the end are unlikely to move policy in a significantly different direction. A more radical to-the-right choice that can attract UKIP voters does not seem to be on the horizon.
The likely bottom line is continued Tory malaise with a major party shake-up inevitable when electoral defeats deliver their subsequent jury verdicts.
