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Major resurgence for Trump

Republican defeatism syndrome


By —— Bio and Archives--November 1, 2016

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I’ve never seen anything like it. Republicans who say they endorse Trump are, in amazing frequency, repeatedly trashing him and making a point of saying he has already lost the election. The extent here, of a party declaring itself defeated all the way to Election Day, is unprecedented!

Yet, while the faithful Trump supporters are attacked mercilessly from the Left and the Right, they continue confident of a Trump victory November 8.

So many of the fellow-traveler Trump supporters are doing so only as a stop-Hillary vote. They see Donald Trump as a flawed candidate who is their only choice if they want to have any hope of defeating Hillary. But in saying they’ll vote for Trump, they determinedly seize upon anything they see as a misstep by Trump.

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Typical of this, George Will, a Republican but never a Trump partisan wrote on October 25 for the conservative National Review: “By the evening of November 8, the Republican party will have lost the popular vote for the sixth time in seven elections and will have lost three consecutive elections for the first time since the 1940s.”

This is said as polls the last few days have been trending Trump, with national polls showing Trump tied, and even leading as the LA Times/USC poll shows, with a 3.4% lead for Trump on Monday.

I referred to this poll several weeks ago to point out that things were trending Trump. Trump took a big hit in the polls soon after that with the Democrats’ October Surprise release of the Trump “locker room talk” video with Billy Bush on October 9. This was followed by a barrage of Democrat-inspired groping accusations against Trump.

But not the typical Republican, who surrenders at the first sign of accusations, Donald Trump stood firm. And with daily revelations of Clinton campaign improprieties through the likes of Project Veritas and WikiLeaks, Clinton’s credibility is suffering badly.

On Monday, October 31, following the announcement Friday by FBI Director James Comey that Hillary Clinton is still under investigation, the USC/LA Times daily poll has Donald Trump ahead of Clinton by 3.4% (46.6 to 43.1). The previous day, October 30 poll had Trump ahead by only 1.9%, (46.0 to 44.1). This was a shift of 1.5% in one day!

And it’s a big change from a week ago, on October 24, when Clinton was leading Trump by 1.3% (45.1 to 43.8). Since that time Clinton has dropped 2% in the polls while Trump has gone up 2.8%!

Other polls also show a major resurgence for Trump. The ABC/Washington Post tracking poll had Clinton’s lead of 7% on October 27 (and 11% on October 25!), down to 1% on October 31.

IPD/TIPP tracking poll in a 4-way poll with Trump, Clinton, Johnson and Stein, has gone from a 4% lead for Clinton on October 25 down to a 1% lead on October 31.

The Remington Research poll shows that from October 25 to 31 there was a 1% change in several state polls, away from Clinton and for Trump: Pennsylvania, Clinton 3% to 2%; Colorado, Clinton 2% to 1%; and Nevada, Trump 3% to 4%. Between the 25th and the 30th, Ohio has gone from 4% Trump to 5% and Remington Research gives North Carolina a 2% Trump lead on the 31st.

On October 31, while polls by Gravis and NBC/WSJ/Marist have Clinton by 1% in Florida, polls by Remington Research and NY Times/Siena have Trump leading by 4%.

Of course there’s no predicting what exactly will happen in the next week, but to call the election for Clinton is extremely naive. While vicious attacks on Trump from the Clinton campaign will continue up through Election Day, with her credibility continually dropping, those attacks will lose their effectiveness and the truth of her criminality will be obvious to more and more people.


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Rolf Yungclas -- Bio and Archives | Comments

Rolf Yungclas is a recently retired newspaper editor from southwest Kansas who has been speaking out on the issues of the day in newspapers and online for over 15 years


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