Results of a Public Opinion Survey on National Security Issues

Yehuda Ben Meir The heightened disagreement between the United States and Israel over a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and future settlement activity in the West Bank has come to the fore. This evening the Israeli prime minister is scheduled to deliver a major policy address that is seen as an answer to President Obama's recent Cairo speech. Mr. Netanyahu is expected to outline his policies – including specific plans and proposals – with regard to the peace process as well as other central challenges facing Israel in the political-military arena.

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In context of the prime minister's speech and its aftermath, a critical question concerns the opinions and attitudes of the Israeli public on these issues. As part of an ongoing project at the Institute for National Security Studies,[1]an in-depth study of the opinions of the adult Jewish population of Israel on a broad range of national security issues was conducted during the first three weeks of May 2009. A number of key findings regarding issues that are at the forefront of Israel's political, diplomatic, and public agenda are presented below.

Settlements and Unauthorized Outposts

According to the survey, only 25 percent of the Jewish population oppose the removal of the unauthorized outposts, 57 percent support their removal even by force, and another 18 percent support their removal only in agreement with the occupants. Forty-two percent of the public oppose expansion of the settlements, while 41 percent support further development of the settlements, "but not if it will result in a confrontation with the United States"; only 17 percent support further settlement activity "irrespective of the American position." These findings suggest that government can count on extensive public support should it decide to forcefully remove the unauthorized outposts after attempts to reach agreement with the occupants are exhausted. Overall, the issue of settlements continues to divide the Israeli public. However, the vast majority of the public does not want a confrontation with the United States over this issue. The government can expect public support should it decide to curtail settlement activity as part of a wider understanding with the United States.

The Contours of a Permanent Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

The readiness of the Israeli public to accept the establishment of a Palestinian state has increased over the past 25 years, from 21 percent in 1987 to 61 percent in 2006, and down slightly in 2007 – 55 percent – 53 percent in 2009. At the same time support for the "two states for two peoples" solution is consistently and significantly higher. In 2007, 63 percent of the Jewish population supported this solution, and in 2009, 64 percent. The difference in the degree of support for the two options is probably due to the fact that the term "Palestinian state" still has a negative connotation for many Israelis, while "two states for two peoples" is seen by a clear majority of Israelis as the only viable solution. The readiness of the Israeli public to evacuate settlements within the context of a negotiated agreement was also examined. Opinions on this issue have changed little over the past three years. There is barely any support for the evacuation of all the settlements in the West Bank, which in effect would mean a return to the 1967 borders – 14 percent in 2007 and 15 percent in the current poll support this position. On the other hand, 43 percent are willing to "evacuate only the small and isolated settlements" compared to 45 percent in 2007. Forty-one to forty-two percent oppose the evacuation of settlements "under any circumstances." Again, these results relate to the evacuation of settlements "in the context of a permanent settlement." Respondents were asked for their opinion regarding the evacuation of settlements in the context of a partial agreement. Here, the public is evenly divided – only 10 percent support the evacuation of all the settlements, 42 percent are willing to evacuate the small and isolated settlements – all told 52 percent, while 48 percent oppose evacuation of settlements under any circumstances. These findings suggest that adoption by the prime minister of the "two states for two peoples" formula would enjoy wide support among the public and therefore should not be expected to cause serious problems in the coalition. In addition, the government can expect to enjoy majority support if at some time in the future it decides to evacuate settlements lying outside the major settlement blocs and east of the security fence, in the context of an agreement with the Palestinians backed by American and possible regional support (such as, for example, the establishment of a Palestinian state with provisional borders).

The Hamas Threat from Gaza

The results on this issue are unequivocal: only 18 percent of the Jewish public support direct or indirect dialogue with Hamas. At the same time, only one third is in favor of toppling the Hamas government "even by occupying the entire Gaza Strip." The remaining 50 percent are in favor of deterring Hamas by military action in Gaza (38 percent) or continuation of the blockade (10 percent). The conclusion from the data is that dialogue with Hamas is outside the Israeli consensus.

The Future of the Golan Heights

The Israeli public is decidedly opposed to withdrawal from the Golan Heights. Respondents were asked their opinion regarding withdrawal from the Golan in the context of a peace treaty with Syria, including full diplomatic and economic relations with Israel, demilitarization of the Golan Heights, severance of the alliance with Iran, expulsion of the terrorist organizations from Syria, and an end to aid for Hizbollah. Merely 3 percent of the public support returning all of the Golan to Syria, and another 6 percent are willing to do so on condition that "the border be distanced from the Sea of Galilee"; 11 percent are willing to withdraw from part of the Golan – all told 20 percent. A clear majority, 60 percent, oppose any withdrawal from the Golan, and the remaining 20 percent are "willing to return the Golan to Syrian sovereignty but leave the Israeli settlements on the Golan (such as, for example, with a 100-year lease)." The conclusion from these results is clear: the Israeli government has no mandate to reach an agreement with Syria over the Golan unless a solution can be found that would enable the Israeli communities there to remain or there would be a dramatic change in the present circumstances. The findings also suggest that the Israeli public has no confidence in Syria's intentions or commitments.

A Nuclear Iran

Fifty-nine percent of the Jewish public support an Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear installations should Israel determine that Iran possesses nuclear weapons. Forty-one percent believe that "Israel should use all the diplomatic means available to dismantle Iran's nuclear capability but avoid a military attack." These figures should be seen in the context of two other results. Respondents were asked what would be the effect on their personal lives if Iran developed nuclear weapons. Eighty percent responded that their personal lives "would not be expected to change," with only 3 percent stating that they would emigrate from Israel; 9 percent said they would consider moving to another community; and 8 percent stated that they "would consider moving to another country." This result is consistent with the fact that only 21 percent of the respondents believe that even should Iran acquire nuclear weapons "it would attack Israel with nuclear weapons with the goal of Israel's destruction." There is good reason to assume that the Israeli public is quite confident in Israel's deterrence capability. 1Since 1985 the Institute for National Security Studies (and before that the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies) has conducted an annual national security public opinion poll, and has charted trends and changes in Israeli public opinion on issues of national security.