Russians are bit players, especially in North America

Anti-Energy Campaigns

The commission Kenney's government struck to investigate anti-energy campaigns is headed by Calgary accountant Steve Allan. It has a $2.5 million budget and a July 2, 2020 deadline. The Terms of Reference focus the inquiry onto the "foreign money" behind those Canadian organizations that are "disseminating false or misleading information" in their "attempt to delay or frustrate the development of Alberta oil and gas." Section 2 (2) of the Terms directs Commissioner Allan to examine two documents:

1. Office of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States of America. Background to 'Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections': The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution; 2017; and,
2. United States House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Majority Staff Report: Russian Attempts to Influence US Domestic Energy Markets; 2018.

While the inquiry is not restricted to these documents; no other documents are mentioned. This directive shifts what many thought would be the inquiry's factual base i.e. the research of Vivian Krause. Allan himself told the Calgary Herald:

Assessing Russian Activities

"I think we look as a starting point at the work that Vivian Krause has done..."

Krause's research points in an entirely different direction than do these two documents. Assessing Russian Activities collates CIA, FBI and NSA intelligence toward contending that the Russian Government mounted an extensive campaign to assist Trump's 2016 election bid. This Russian campaign is said to be a continuation of Soviet efforts to manipulate Americans. Russian interference in the 2016 election purportedly consisted of: a) cyber-espionage in cooperation with Guccifer 2.0, WikiLeaks, and DCLeaks; b) social media initiatives (troll farms, twitter storms etc.); and, c) news programs appearing on RT (formerly Russia Today). Assessing re-prints a 2012 exposé of RT by Open Source Enterprise, containing this sentence:

"RT runs anti-fracking programs highlighting environmental issues and the impact on public health."

Russian Attempts to Influence

Said programs were apparently motivated by fear of American gas exports cutting into Gazprom sales. Commissioner Allan's second piece of homework, Russian Attempts to Influence US Domestic Energy Markets boasts bipartisan support. Representative Lamar Smith (R, Texas) and Senator Ben Cardin (D, Maryland) drive this stratagem. On Lamar's initiative the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology requested Facebook, Twitter and Instagram to provide data regarding orchestrated, politically-motivated internet postings originating from Russia. Suspicions center on the shadowy Saint Petersburg's troll farm, Internet Research Agency (IRA) which employs over 1,000 trolls, many of them students, at several hundred dollars a month (plus free food and tuition) to churn out posts, tweets and comments. IRA does some work for the Russian Government but also plugs consumer products. While USA is targeted; IRA has global reach and often dwells on Middle Eastern and Ukrainian affairs. Social media company audits of 2015 to 2017 identified 4,334 IRA-linked accounts. During those years these accounts generated 9,097 posts and tweets about US pipelines, fossil fuels and climate policy. 4% of US-focussed tweets coming through IRA discussed energy/environment issues. Russian Attempts to Influence presumes Russians are threatened by booming US oil and gas output wrought by the fracking revolution. Russians are said to be particularly vexed over US liquid natural gas exports to Europe; thus, are incentivized to steer US enviro-groups into opposing fracking, pipelines etc.

For actual evidence of Russian manipulation of US enviro-groups Russian Attempts to Influence twice references the above-cited sentence about RT from Assessing Russian Activities, alongside media reports predicated on that sentence. Further evidence is drawn from a "secret speech" by Hillary Clinton (hacked by WikiLeaks) wherein Clinton drops an obscure quip about Russian-funded enviro-activism. Russian Attempts to Influence claims the Russian Government gave over $90 million to European anti-fracking groups. This assertion comes from The Bear in Sheep's Clothing by the Brussels-based think tank, Wilfried Martens Centre, which claims: "The Russian government therefore has invested E82 million in NGOs whose job it is to persuade EU governments to stop shale gas exploration." The footnoted source is: "Anonymous." No information is given regarding the math underlying this estimate, nor about the number of years over which this alleged investment is spread. Bear in Sheep's Clothing is not mainly about Russian involvement in environmentalism. It is a survey of Russian "soft power" foreign policy operations (influence on foreign parties, journalists, NGOs etc.) Authors note that Russia's soft power apparatus is smaller than Germany's. Lastly, Russian Attempts to Influence references a 2014 publication by the US Senate's Environment Committee (The Chain of Environmental Command). This publication does NOT blame Russians for anti-fossil fuel activism in America; but rather points the finger at domestic philanthropists. Tangible evidence presented in Russian Attempts to Influence consists of 17 internet postings and 34 tweets, from IRA, touching on US climate and energy policy. Ten sampled posts came from one account ("born liberal"). No sampled post went viral. Most generated 0 comments and a few hundred "likes." Five pipelines were mentioned: Bayou Bridge, Colonial, Dakota Access, Enbridge Line 5, and Keystone XL. The last two move Alberta product. The last one moves oilsands oil.

The proposition that the Hand of Moscow got Trump elected is preposterous

The document adds:

"...several Russian posts focus on the counter-narrative and sought to exploit anti-activist sentiment by propagating content supportive of pipeline construction efforts." (Emphasis added.) The sampled post with the most "likes" argues that pipelines have minimal ecological footprints. The sole mention of Alberta appears in a post arguing that oilsands operations are ecologically benign compared to open-pit lithium mines from whence electric car batteries are hewn. IRA also generated climate change sceptical posts. Russian Attempts to Influence processes this contradiction by claiming: "These Russian agents are only interested in creating division in America..." Possibly..., but that's a different agenda from suppressing domestic fuel production.*

The proposition that the Hand of Moscow got Trump elected is preposterous. Moreover, supporting Trump cannot be construed as attacking US domestic energy production. Trump was the pro-drilling, pro-pipeline candidate. Neither of the two required readings provide evidence of money flowing from Russia to North American anti-energy groups. Instead, Russians are accused of deploying IRA to issue an annual total of 3,000 US energy-related posts, tweets and comments (8 per day). Globally, tweets and posts are now tallied in the millions per day. IRA's influence was negligible. As well, many IRA postings, like the support for Trump, promoted North American energy development. The Climate Change crusade--with its petroleum phase-out agenda; its climate industrial complex powerhouse, and its 'keep-it-in-the-ground' subsidiary--is a global behemoth with multifarious contributions coursing through manifold conduits. Russians are bit players, especially in North America. If the two above-discussed documents form the springboard for the Public Inquiry into anti-Alberta Energy Campaigns, then Commissioner Allan is about to perform a $2.5 million swan dive down a rabbit hole.

Sources

Alberta Government: Public Inquiry into anti-Alberta Energy Campaigns, July 4, 2019. (Terms of Reference attached.) Alberta Government Press Release: Standing Up to Foreign Influences, July 4, 2019. Office of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States of America. Background to 'Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections': The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution; 2017. Potkins, Meghan. Steve Allan to step down as chair of Calgary Economic Development this fall; Calgary Herald, July 5, 2019. United States House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Majority Staff Report; Russian Attempts to Influence US Domestic Energy Markets; 2018. United State Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Minority Staff Report, The Chain of Command: How a Club of Billionaires and Their Foundations Control the Environmental Movement and Obama's EPA, July 30, 2014. Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. The Bear in Sheep's Clothing, July 2016.