Successive Canadian governments’ efforts to increase non-U.S. trade have had limited effect over past 25 years

VANCOUVER—The Canadian government has set an ambitious goal to double trade with countries other than the United States within a decade, but historical experience suggests that will be a difficult goal to achieve, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“This federal government is not the first to prioritize diversifying trade away from the United States, and it’s important to understand the limited successes of previous efforts by other governments to do so,” said Jock Finlayson, a Fraser Institute senior fellow and co-author of Assessing Canada’s Trade Dependence on the U.S.

The study finds that over the last 50 years, a number of Canadian governments implemented ambitious programs designed to reduce Canada’s economic dependence on the U.S., particularly for exports, but with limited success.

In fact, since 1999, despite repeated efforts by successive Canadian governments to diversify exports away from the U.S., the total share of good exports going to the U.S. decreased only modestly, going from 86.7 per cent in 1999 to 76.3 per cent in 2024.

Likewise, the share of Canada’s services exports going to the U.S. decreased from 60.4 per cent in 1999 to 51.6 per cent in 2024.

Crucially, Canada’s geographic proximity to the U.S.—the world’s largest economy—our shared language, similar legal standards and business practices, transportation costs and our well-developed cross-border transportation networks are important factors that have shaped Canada’s trade flows.

“There are myriad reasons why so many Canadian exports flow to the United States, and counteracting those powerful factors to steer trade away from the U.S. has proven difficult in the past,” said Steven Globerman, a senior fellow with the Fraser Institute and study co-author.

Media Contact:
Jock Finlayson, Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
Steven Globerman, Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

To arrange media interviews or for more information, please contact:
Erin Clemens, Junior Communications Coordinator, Fraser Institute
604-688-0221 ext.615
erin.clemens@fraserinstitute.org