Svante Arrhenius: An Early Prophet Of The ‘Energy Crisis’

It was surprising to encounter a book by Svante Arrhenius published in 1919 which contains many very current-sounding ideas on energy topics. Although Svante Arrhenius showed great foresight in many of his comments on energy, he was wrong in some of his most important predictions: America will run out of oil by 1953 at the latest. Coal reserves will be depleted in England within 50 years and in America within 150 years. --Charles G. Moseley, Journal of Chemical Education 55(3) 1978

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That so great a scientist as Svante Arrhenius could badly overestimate the energy problems of his time suggests that we should perhaps place more emphasis on using technology to solve our energy problems and less emphasis on bemoaning the difficulty of the problem. --Charles G. Moseley, Journal of Chemical Education 55(3) 1978 Climate change is one of the biggest risks facing the insurance industry, the governor of the Bank of England has said after a former Conservative chancellor dismissed a study on global warming as “green claptrap”. Speaking at the House of Lords, Mark Carney mounted a robust defence of the Bank’s work on the impact of climate change on the insurance industry in the face of claims by Nigel Lawson that it had its priorities wrong. --The Guardian, 11 March 2015 The first question is what does the Bank of England know that the International Energy Agency doesn’t know about the energy sector? The other is, although the economy is now doing very much better, there are a whole lot of remaining problems in the financial sector. Wouldn’t it be better if you focused your attention on those instead of engaging in green claptrap? --Nigel Lawson, House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, 10 March 2015 As in many businesses, the 80-20 rule applies. Sixteen per cent of the wells in operation across North America account for 82% of the oil produced. And, generally speaking, production is up. As producers become more efficient, the number of rigs required to yield the same amount of production naturally drops. Technology is whitewashing old school rules. In many ways, Moore’s Law has finally arrived in the oil patch. As the months unfold, advancements in pad drilling and rig mobility, among other breakthroughs, will only ensure more of the same, rendering rig counts as a measure of industry health obsolete. --Mark Hill, Oil Price, 8 March 2015 After raising the spectre of black swans, the Saudis are taking steps to increase the likelihood of oil continuing as an important source of world energy in 2050. By maintaining production and allowing prices to fall, Saudi Arabia and its allies in effect are starving the black cygnets to death. The implications for those engaged in oil exploration and production, as well as those developing alternatives such as electric cars or renewable fuels, are obvious. Oil prices will be much lower than anticipated. The lower prices will force those who back alternatives to look for larger subsidies or make a greater effort to reduce their costs. --Philip Verleger, Financial Times, 11 March 2015

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