The signs are there, the occurrence fixed only the actual dates are unknown. Given a shock like the American usage of nuclear bombs in World War II, the war may be short, as was the Six Day War in 1967. Or it can be long, much longer than the Day of Atonement War in 1973, if it becomes an all-out war for elimination and survival. In either case, it will start with a surprise attack, like Pearl Harbor or Germany’s invasion of Poland.
Israel and the West will be dumbfounded and awake to a very ugly reality. If eyes do not open quickly, the USA may actually contribute to a faster deterioration of Israel’s chances of survival. Failure to attribute action against Israel correctly, or expecting the President’s charm to work wonders in places it has already failed, may further collapse Israel’s already weakened condition. America’s full military might behind Israel is NOT for Israel’s sake, it is for America’s own future survival.
To answer those who ask “why be pessimistic?” I say: We do not have the luxury of fooling ourselves anymore. Few who understand the enemy believe tomorrow will bring with it peace and reconciliation. Evil is emboldened and becomes more aggressive as we continually retreat into our cocoon of optimistic denial and rosy anticipation of a benevolent future.
The business of evaluating possible future scenarios and developments is not pessimism, rather the optimist’s inner belief goodness will prevail and we will win. Cautious optimism must be combined, however, with the realization that preparation is required to achieve victory.
Readiness includes a grasp of the actual threat and evaluation of what can and should be done. To achieve a most basic level of preparedness, one must have plans drawn and train in implementing them. Although we hope such plans will never be put to use, we must be ready for and proficient in their execution.
Imagine trying to find the batteries for your flashlight when an earthquake strikes. Better to go now, find the flashlight, change the batteries (you may discover there are no batteries inside) and add other basic supplies and necessities. If you wait for the earthquake to strike, you will lament forgoing this simple advance preparation.
The USA spent billions of dollars post the 9-11-2001 Attacks on what amounted to a witch hunt for scapegoats. A blame-game of Congressional Hearings ensued, designed to answer the questions: What went wrong, what could have been done differently? Where did we err and how can we better prepare for the future? What lessons must be derived and conclusions implemented to ensure we are not caught ever again with our pants down?
Israel’s awakening started with the 2006 Second War in Lebanon
Israel’s awakening started with the 2006 Second War in Lebanon. It became evident Israel’s focus on Palestinian terrorism of the First and Second Intifadas, followed by a most costly unilateral evacuation of thousands of Jews from Gush Katif, weakened the readiness of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to unimagined lows. The War, although undeclared until long after it ended, remains a forceful reminder of how unprepared Israel had become.
Having almost lost its deterrence, Israel faced a plethora of criticism. Censorship was not in place. Cell phone usage exposed soldiers to harm. Classified intelligence failed to reach the forces in the front line. Arrogance resulted in protective shields that existed but were simply not activated costing both human life and humiliation to Israel. Hizbollah was listening to everything happening in Israel – both readily available and classified, with spies on the ground and the ability to penetrate previously protected networks. Moreover, it constantly evaluated, responded to and successfully incorporated Israel’s reactions and mistakes in its battle plans.
Israeli soldiers were untrained in the type of warfare necessary. Logistics did not reach the front line. Emergency supplies were outdated and sometimes plainly missing. And the enemy was armed with advanced weaponry against which Israel had no immediate answer. For instance, Russian explosives used in anti-tank missiles managed to penetrate Israel’s most advanced tanks, melting them like butter, killing everyone inside. Nothing was able to stop these anti-tank missiles. Israel actually has the know-how to protect the tanks, except it apparently lacked the intelligence the enemy was armed and about to use these missiles. Thus the necessary procurement of defensive systems was not budgeted therefore not carried out. This is a process that takes a few years and cannot be implemented while at war.
There were other problems as well and one that should be highlighted is Israel’s concern with Lebanon, protecting its infrastructure and inflicting as little damage as possible. Related was Israel’s concern with human life, at a great cost to her own soldiers. Israel willingly sacrificed young men and women to minimize civilian casualties and prevent loss of life in general.
Hizbollah had six years to get ready. Its bunkers were connected, well equipped and supplied. There was redundancy in its systems, and they became impenetrable. Thus, for instance, Hizbollah was able to communicate in real time among itself and with the world, and Israel was powerless to respond.
Israel waited for Hizbollah to take the first step when it suited Hizbollah. For six years Hizbollah built and fortified, dug and covered. Why did Israel not act but waited to be attacked? The situation has not changed almost four years later, apparently the lessons of the past have not settled deep enough.
Morale was low during and after the war. A million Israelis fled their homes in the North to the Center. Life came to a standstill. The Home Command did not operate properly and those who were left in shelters were often left to their own devices, as were the elderly, disabled and sick. Substituting for a coordinated, systematic governmental system to provide needed services, private individuals from Israel and abroad pursued personal initiatives to help those stranded in the North and lessen their suffering.
The missiles targeted cities indiscriminately. Israeli Arabs were warned to leave Haifa and the Galilee, to flee before Hizbollah hit these exact locations. Despite the advance warning, Israel was unable to do much about it. Thousands of missiles later, Israel understood her failures. As the psychological war carried on from both sides, Israel began to implement changes.
We must remember this was a war on only one front—with Hizbollah in Lebanon. It reached every household from the Northern border down southward beyond Haifa.
Operation Cast Lead and the ground incursion into Gaza at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 was a three week limited repeat engagement. Hamas learned and implemented the lessons from Hizbollah. The flow of armament arrived via the Sinai Peninsula and the Mediterranean Sea rather than via Syria, although the main supplier was the same: Iran. The range of rockets from Gaza reached a Sixty Second radius – to Beer Sheva and the outskirts of Rehovot. Thus, once again, the Center was spared, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem were not in harm’s way.
The Gaza War was viewed an improvement over Lebanon since some of the previous failures were corrected. Israel remained too concerned with collateral damage and tried to minimize human loss at great lengths previously unseen in any army. Disappointingly, it was clear to outside observers Israel was complimenting herself on her improvements over the Lebanon War not realizing her enemy is light years ahead.
The war raged in Gaza and simultaneously in London and Johannesburg, Los Angeles and Paris, San Francisco and Stockholm, Ankara and other capitals and major cities around the world. Israel to this very day does not recognize these as the Pubic Diplomacy Front, similar to not having a Home Front Command during the First Persian Gulf.
What has changed between Summer 2006 and Winter 2009? Neither Hizbollah nor Hamas was crushed. They are better equipped today than before. While the constant bombardment of missiles onto Israeli population centers has subsided, it will take no time to ignite the fire once again. This time around, the missiles will be more accurate, longer range and more powerful; the enemy’s determination not lessened, but intensified.
In the next war, there will be no safe havens. The Center, from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, will be under attack. It will be the bull’s eye. There will be no shelter, which will necessitate the country to stand as one, equal under the threat. Israel will have to change her course, no longer the good guy, concerned more with the enemy’s welfare and safety than her own. It will finally be a war for survival, and the gloves will have to be taken off.
Israelis will undoubtedly unite, and the Israeli Arabs will have to make a decision: Are you with us, an Israeli first, or against us, a hostile minority with national aspirations to destroy its host country. It will be black and white, no half pregnancy then. The choice will be clear, the consequences dear. Arabs took sides once before, in 1948, and they were wrong. For the past 62 years they enjoyed freedoms and privileges the likes of which they experience in no other country in the Middle East. Their analysis will not take long, for being Israelis first will outweigh all other considerations combined – for their own good, not anyone else’s.
Israelis will be called to reserves, and those past the age will be put to task as well. They are the more experienced, the ones who realize the stakes. There will be no one left—young men and women alike will be in the various simultaneous fronts.
Israelis outside of Israel will have to be called back to defend their country. Priorities will shift. No longer will one be concerned with daily tasks, with one’s job. Those who can will leave and return to the homeland. Others will have to serve in their locations, as soldiers and ambassadors on Israel’s PR Front.
The Jewish communities in the Diaspora will be under attack themselves. They will have to unite, erasing differences and engrained habits. They will fight for their own existence in face of a raging anti-Semitism, and they will need to help Israel too. It would become evident to them that they will not survive without Israel.
Our friends, the few that we have left, will be called to our aid. The Christians, the only ones during the Second War in Lebanon who came to Israel, will be asked to come again, to show support both on the very front line (at a great risk to their lives) as well as back at their home communities. Again as soldiers fighting for the Jewish Homeland, the one Covenanted to Abraham, Isaac and Jacob by one Almighty, the God of the Hebrews, they will join in the battle. They have proven themselves worthy before and will not deter from being there again, giving themselves unconditionally.
The world will awake, and much like in the two World Wars of last century, now too everyone will take sides. There will be no escape, for the Forces of Evil, led by Iran and the Islamists, are determined to bring the Western World to its knees and establish an Islamic Caliphate in its place.
Interestingly, many Muslim countries, more awake and focused than most, will also take sides, at a great loss of human lives and an even greater sacrifice. They, more than anyone else, realize the true threat, the nature of the beast. They, contrary to what one may expect, will be on the side of Israel, as Egypt was during the Gaza War. Brutally aware that this will not be a war like any other, but the war that ends all wars.
