The red-line concept is a construct to provide the justification for impending action. It has been used throughout the ages to demark transgression and reprisal. History is full of such examples. History also shows that, when the expected transgression did not occur in time, provocative incidents were conducted to justify the counter action. Many wars have started that way.
View from the Outside
The view from the outside shows a picture of utter confusion. The “red line” may have been passed but by whom? It’s not clear at all. Still, the firepower is being assembled as we speak.
The regime in Syria is being accused of having used a nerve gas against its own civilians. Most recently, the current US Secretary of State, John Kerry, proclaimed “that chemical weapons were used in Syria. Moreover, we know that the Syrian regime maintains custody of these chemical weapons.” Nearly every commentary I read says it would not make any sense for the regime to do so, certainly not at this point in time. Though the evidence has been termed “undeniable” there remains an aura of a “false flag” incident surrounding the event.
Back in 2003, Colin Powell, then also Secretary of State, gave a sincere and detailed presentation at the UN on the threat of “weapons of mass destruction” (WMDs) the former strongman of Iraq, Saddam Hussein, was claimed to have. That claim was based on “credible intelligence” and was the reason for the UN-allied forces to engage in Gulf War-II. Alas, to this date, no shred of evidence of such WMDs at Hussein’s disposal was ever found on the ground.
The Arab Spring
The Arab Spring was intended to open up countries along the southern rim in the Mediterranean to democratic principles. Young people, many suffering from extreme unemployment in the region, saw it as a way forward. However, the initial successes, hailed in the West, were soon subverted into new regimes by other ruthless characters. The “spring” turned into a new nightmare and ever since, the entire region has become quite unstable.
The Arab Spring movement was supported both by word and deed from European and other western powers. Canadian warplanes alone flew well over 1,000 sorties to bomb Libyan forces loyal to Gaddafi. He did not live long thereafter. Now, Libya is a divided country with the east half essentially being under Egyptian control. Prior to the “spring,” Libya was exporting oil at a rate of 1.5 million barrels per day (MBD), mostly to Europe. Though the production systems had expeditiously been repaired after the removal of Gaddafi, Libya’s current exports are said to be closer to 0.5 MBD.
Syria
Syria is just the latest locale where many different desires meet to take control. A million-plus refugees from that area are living in emergency shelter or camps, from Syria’s neighbors to far away countries. The weapon cashes previously stuffed by Libya’s Gaddafi somehow seemed to have made it into the hands of the Syrian “rebels.”
A major showdown appears to be imminent. No matter which side may prevail, it will not be the end of turmoil in the region. More likely than not it’s just going to be the first skirmish in a long battle, with additional players coming on the scene. Forces of east and west, north and south are colliding with an unpredictable outcome. No doubt, the US Navy can flatten potential targets with cruise missiles and other fire power in short order. But would it bring peace to the region? Not likely.
The Suez Canal
The Suez Canal provides a seaway route between the east side of Africa and the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic. The canal is a vital link between major trading partners in the near and far east and the west. Without it, ships would have to travel around the southern tip Africa to get to the same destinations - an additional 2,700 miles.
With the military in Egypt having taken control once again, some sort of stability appears to have returned there. If, for some reason, from external or internal developments, instability should engulf the entire region, all bets are off. More turmoil could easily lead to the Suez passage no longer being available to ships wanting to use it.
Stay tuned!
