Joey Jones is the Deputy Political Editor at Sky News and tweeted out a picture of the sun rising over London Friday morning. He wrote: “the ‘ukip dawn’ as I came across lambeth bridge this morning”. England and Northern Ireland went to the polls the day before to elect some of its local councils with Scotland and Wales joining in to vote in the Euro elections.
Euro results cannot be released until later on Sunday when all countries are done voting. But the local council elections are in and UKIP (the UK Independence Party) continues to score growing victories as the party moves from fringe to mainstream. No longer are these results a one-off phenomena, there is a new party rising to power.
The exact ‘damage’ to the political establishment will not be known until the weekend is over. Many voters indicated they would split votes with the preference to go with UKIP in the Euros. So the party’s 17% national vote (a projection from local councils that did hold elections) is likely to climb higher in European Parliament voting.
154 local councils were up for grabs in England with 3857 seats at stake. The Conservative Party lost control of 11 of its 50 councils while the Lib. Dems. lost 2 of their 8. Labour picked up 6 of these with 7 moving to ‘no overall control’.
But movement in the individual seats was more revealing. Lib. Dems lost 282 of 686 seats while Conservatives lost 201 of 1460. Labour picked up 292, UKIP 155 (having previously held only 2), Greens added 18 doubling their total to 35 while others picked up 21. Northern Ireland elections were still being tallied at the time of writing.
UKIP’s major haul mirrored successes from other municipal elections a year ago. Major political figures are already trying to come up explanations before the crushing Euro results hit Sunday Night with some pre-election polling showing UKIP headed for 1st place.
The strong success of UKIP in Essex cost Labour control of Thurrock council whilst in the Labour heartland of Rotherham, UKIP took 10 of the 21 seats being contested. That UKIP did well in northern cities like Rotherham is bad news for Labour who traditionally do best there.
Labour leader Ed Miliband tried to put some good spin on saying: "I think what we heard last night was a deep sense of discontent with the way the country's run and a deep desire for change. Across the country you've seen people voting for Labour to make that change happen: from Croydon, to Hastings, to Cambridge. You also saw some people turning to UKIP - and I am determined that over the next year we persuade them that we can change their lives for the better."
But Labour MP and Miliband critic Graham Stringer countered: "We have not done as well as we should have done in both the presentation of our policies and the organisation of the campaign. (the campaign was) unforgivably unprofessional".
UKIP’s Winston Mackenzie, a black candidate, didn’t mince words with his criticism of racial attacks by opponents telling the BBC on air:”There’s been this massive drive about racism and the word racism has been demeaned and diminished. Certain sections of the press together with the coalition have used it as a political weapon. They’ve played the race card 100%.”
Mackenzie is right about an institutional effort to brand UKIP as racist which over 40% of the country now believes. But they have pushed forward in the face of all the deception and continued to run on what they believe.
Where have UKIP done it right and how have the establishment got it wrong? James Kirkup of the Telegraph says "Sounding like human beings might help." His point is echoed by Lib-Dem. Lynne Featherstone (one of the brighter sparks in the party) "All of us have gotten to the point where we are so guarded, we are so on message that we seem to have lost some of our humanity."
Featherstone’s bright counterpart in Labour – Yvette Cooper – added that in the wake of the elections her party needed to talk more about the immigration issue, which was a major issue on the doorsteps. What Labour actually needs is to let Cooper talk more while the others take notes.
The establishment frame UKIP as thin on hard policy and infer as all elitists do that they don’t know enough and therefore lack the solutions. While they will point out that YouGov polling shows suggests that one in four UKIP voters know nothing at all about the party's other policies, among the population at large, this proportion rises to 60%.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage told the BBC News Channel "Mr Cameron views UKIP as being members of the lower orders. We really are not worthy even to be in the room with him." And it is this projected persona from the establishment leaders that has voters trickling towards Farage, who would rather hold court in the pub while drinking a genuine pint.
Voters though are still reluctant to complete the revolution, instead acting like the Israelis of the Exodus, looking back forlornly at Egypt. It is interesting that 2 spies (17%) voted to take the promised land of Canaan while 10 refused. 17% is what UKIP’s projected national vote from the local councils is.
