The United States and the Buildup of Military Force in the Persian Gulf

by Yiftah Shapir Recent international media reports have mentioned the accelerated deployment of American defensive missile systems in the Persian Gulf as preparation for the possibility of an Iranian missile attack in the Gulf region. In a rare statement released to the media, CENTCOM commander General Petraeus also referred to this deployment.

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The missile deployment has been associated with the change in the Obama administration’s policy towards Iran as expressed in the president’s first State of the Union address. Now, after many long months of abortive attempts to generate a dialogue with the regime in Tehran, the Obama administration is seeking broad consensus for sanctions against the Revolutionary Guard, the outfit – according to Western intelligence sources – in control of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Contrary to the impression created by the media that these reinforcements are new, perhaps a sign of concern regarding an imminent Iranian attack or a sign of American intentions to attack Iran’s nuclear installations in the near future, at work is a prolonged process that began about two and a half years ago, while President George W. Bush was still in office. In July 2007, during his visit to the region, President Bush announced a weapons deal of unprecedented scope with the Gulf states. At that time, the arms deal with Saudi Arabia was said to be worth $20 billion, and the deal with the other Gulf states was said to be worth a similar (though not specified) amount. As part of that policy, American defense aid to Israel was also increased to $30 billion over the next ten years. The agreement on American defense aid to Egypt was likewise renewed, involving $13 billion for the next ten years. Reports of the first sales made as part of this policy were presented to the US Congress already in December 2007, while the first contracts were signed in July 2008. As part of this buildup, the Gulf states – headed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE – ordered equipment worth about $25 billion. As part of the first stage, the equipment included primarily air defense systems, with anti-missile defense capabilities. Also acquired were upgrades for the existing Patriot batteries in Kuwait and the UAE. Abu Dhabi ordered the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), an advanced anti-ballistic missile system, and became the system’s first customer outside the American military (where it has yet to reach operational maturity). However, the buildup is not limited to defensive systems. Saudi Arabia and the UAE also bought advanced munitions for their fighter jets (including GPS-guided JDAM bombs). Saudi Arabia ordered tanks for the military and infantry fighter vehicles for the National Guard, while Kuwait ordered ten high-speed cruisers. Nor did the Gulf states suffice themselves with American deals. For many years the purchasing pattern of the Gulf states has been to shop from a variety of vendors, usually buying weapons from European countries. The most prominent such deal in recent years was the sale of the British Typhoon jets to Saudi Arabia, a deal worth around $10 billion (the exact figure has never been published). The statements published by sources in the American administration also made reference to America’s capabilities in the Gulf. General Petraeus mentioned in particular that two cruisers equipped with the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System “are in the Gulf at all times now.” The intention was apparently to hint at the fact that there are cruisers capable of intercepting ballistic missiles in Gulf waters, though not all the cruisers equipped with Aegis system are equipped with the SM-3 interceptors capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. The number of such interceptors in the arsenal of the American navy is only a few dozen. Despite the fact that the buildup process has been taking place for years, there is nonetheless significance to the current American media frenzy. Beyond President Obama’s internal considerations at the end of his first year in office, the reports come at a time when the United States is trying to recruit international support for harsher sanctions against Iran. They are meant to demonstrate to the world at large the commitment of the United States to the Gulf states, which are extremely anxious about Iran’s growing strength, while reminding Iran that although this is a new administration that was prepared to engage in dialogue with it, it is not about to forfeit America’s critical interests in the Persian Gulf. It is possible that it is also meant to remind Iran that the military option is still on the table. In Israel, the tendency is to look askance at any arms buildup on the part of an Arab state. Longstanding tacit assumptions, e.g., the Arab states will never really accept the existence of the State of Israel and any arms reaching one Arab state is liable some day to be turned against the Zionist entity, underlie this suspicion. Israel's concerns may perhaps have practical value when Israel comes to the United States seeking newer technologies. However, at the end of the day, the likelihood that weapons procured by the Gulf states will ever be turned against Israel is very slight. By contrast, it is clearly in Israel’s best interests that there be deep American involvement in the Gulf, both as a factor moderating the Arab states and as military deterrence vis-à-vis Iran. In addition, Israel is interested in developing anti-missile defense networks under American sponsorship because in the final analysis, thanks to Israel’s part in the American deterrence systems, information from such systems deployed in the Persian Gulf may contribute to early warning about missiles launched at Israel.