Thunder Bay is Ontario’s most-dangerous urban area; violent crime rate more than twice as high as Toronto

TORONTO—Among Ontario’s large urban areas, Thunder Bay has the highest rates of both violent and property crimes provincewide, and its violent crime rate is more than double that of Toronto, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“A number of Ontario cities have violent and property crime rates that exceed the national average, with Thunder Bay having the distinction of being the most dangerous,” said Livio Di Matteo, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of Comparing Recent Crime Trends in Canada and the US: Urban Areas.

The chapter released today, part of a larger upcoming study examining crime rates between the two countries, focuses on the rankings of large urban areas—known as Census Metropolitan Areas—of 100,000 people or more.

For Ontario, it finds that based on the maximum annual crime rate from 2019 to 2022 (the most recent years of comparable date), Thunder Bay had the highest population-adjusted rate of violent crimes (e.g., murder, robbery, and assault with a weapon) among all 14 Ontario CMAs at 546 crimes per 100,000 people. For context, the national average of all CMAs is 262 crimes per 100,000 people. Thunder Bay’s violent crime rate is more than twice the rate for Toronto (203).

Other Ontario CMAs with violent crime rates above the national average of CMAs include Sudbury (318), Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (312), Brantford (279), and London (266).

Thunder Bay also had the province’s highest rate of property crime (e.g., burglary, theft, motor vehicle theft) at 3,309 crimes per 100,000. For context, the national average for CMAs is 2,513 per 100,000. Thunder Bay was followed by London (3,023), Windsor (2,761), Kingston (2,654) and Sudbury (2,603), all of which are higher than the national average of CMAs.

Nationwide, Winnipeg is Canada’s most dangerous city with the highest violent crime rate of 675 crimes per 100,000 people. Lethbridge, AB had the highest property crime rate nationwide of 5,521 per 100,000 people.

“Crime rates in Canadian cities, while still historically low, are on the rise and should be of greater concern for both citizens and policymakers,” Di Matteo said.

Media Contact:
Livio Di Matteo, Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

To arrange media interviews or for more information, please contact:
Drue MacPherson, Fraser Institute
604-688-0221 ext. 721
drue.macpherson@fraserinstitute.org