Tories jostle for position in preparation for ‘life after Dave’

The British Prime Minister, David Cameron, has succeeded in making himself unpopular not only with opposition parties – which is to be expected – but with a majority of his own party members as well.

The push for gay marriage, failed immigration reform and a false start on the EU referendum have all dragged down his once shining star. The ranks are grumbling and now there is breaking news of a high level affair with identities seemingly being blocked by a super injunction. Tories are not happy because most are not following their core beliefs, sacrificed to support a social-liberal position they are uncomfortable with. Then they’ve come under enormous pressure from the populist UKIP and subsequently paid for their politically centrist advances at the ballot box. The rumours are starting to circulate of backbench revolts in the House of Commons and plots to overthrow Cameron as party leader. According to sources speaking to HuffPo-UK more than 30 Tory MP’s are willing to sign a letter calling for a vote of no-confidence in the Prime Minister. 46 would be 15% of all Conservative MP’s, the magic number that would force a leadership election. Add to that the Prime Minister has surprisingly few friends in high places, but an abundance of principals and deputies just waiting for him to fail.

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One idea has London Mayor Boris Johnson entering parliament and quickly assuming the party’s leadership with Cameron’s blessing. Johnson is a character no doubt with an appeal that crosses traditional party lines. But he’s not loyal to Cameron! Andy Coulson, a former Cameron henchman said, “Mr. Johnson will not wield the knife himself, but is happy for his Old Etonian rival to ‘fail miserably’ so he can take his place”. Committed Conservatives should take note, do they really want someone who thinks this way assuming control? If there is a ‘coup’ of some kind it will very likely be this year. If gay-marriage gets through the House of Lords this week it will likely be the proverbial straw to break the camel’s back. A leadership challenge would then be likely though not guaranteed to succeed. But who would be the candidates? Theresa May – Home Secretary. Holding a high profile position she is in the news and immediately recognizable. But recognition may be her problem. She often fails to get her point across clearly, is a bit of a fashion icon, and comes across as very "Roedean" (a top British girl’s school)! This might sit well with Old Etonians but it doesn’t connect her with anyone else. Chris Grayling – Lord High Chancellor. Grayling is frequently mentioned as a possible future party leader. At age 51 he has the right balance of maturity and youth (the average age of voters is late-forties). His conservative credentials are strong, having openly advocated for the rights of Christian Bed & Breakfasts to refuse homosexual couples, and having been an effective party attack dog during the Brown Labour administration. However he was also caught up in improprieties during the MP expense scandal and his proposed changes to the UK legal aid system have come under heavy criticism from senior lawyers. Michael Gove – Education Minister. Margaret Thatcher was the Education Minister and this may give the position extra credibility as a stepping stone. However Gove has already made himself unpopular by telling teachers they are going about things the wrong way. His understanding of the education system is questionable and he displays a degree of arrogance. These things may not harm his ability to win, but should raise questions amongst the grass roots as to how effective he would be. Philip Hammond – Defence Minister. Like Grayling, Phillip Hammond has strong conservative credentials having called the gay-marriage debate a waste of government time (“civil unions deal with the issue”) and has been critical of proposed defence cuts. He became a millionaire prior to entering parliament through work as a company director, consultant and investor. He is an embodiment of politicians who are appear strong on traditionally important Conservative Party issues such as Immigration and the maintenance of Westminster’s sovereignty. William Hague – Foreign Secretary. At one time Leader of the Opposition across the aisle from Tony Blair, William Hague is someone who commands a certain respect. He comes across as someone with integrity and had a long standing association with Margaret Thatcher even after she left government. He speaks like a statesman, and isn't too prone to open his mouth at the wrong time. Hague may have been more politically successful but defeating the charismatic Tony Blair at the polls in 2001, with senior Conservative Michael Portillo trying to publicly reverse course on him, was too much. Subsequently Hague stepped down as leader but has remained a prominent party contributor. He is also a product of comprehensive school and old fashioned Yorkshire values who could yet be presented as the right man for the job. Whoever succeeds Cameron and whenever it happens, Conservatives need to get over themselves. Since The Sun famously declared the party dead in 1998, mimicking the classic Monty Python parrot sketch ("dead ... no more ... it has ceased to be ... this is an ex-party"), Tories have suffered from excessive image consciousness. It didn’t start there but it seems this was the point where it became paramount. The Sun in fact is a classic representation of how political opinions shift. Uninformed voters attracted by the free stuff promised on the front page and the chance to win a holiday in the Canaries while the rest of the country is covered in frost. But for the 99% who don’t win anything they quickly return to common sense. There needs to be an acceptance that the fickle electorate will not abandon principle as fast as they’ll change the TV channel during the adverts. It doesn’t mean they are going to stop watching the programme, it simply means they tune out as their mind turns to the goodies in the fridge. The problem with so many politicians is they have no confidence that the electorate has any intelligence. So they feel compelled to keep offering up the freebies. They stop the adverts without regard to revenue to return you to your programme more quickly, afraid of losing you forever. This co-dependent acting out is known in governance terms as an unsustainable policy. The Israelites used to do this following the reign of King Solomon. They would go back and forth between a King who would feed them the goodies they craved, and a King who would lead them into righteousness. If you stand on principal the people return to it. If it’s abandoned there is nothing to return to. Since the catastrophic result in the Eastleigh by-election, No.10 seems to lack a sense of authority, with different policy directions appearing all the time. Whilst this is cleverly be described as the floating of new ideas; the reality is that there is a tension of ideologies within the cabinet and a lack of confidence they can win anything. Couple this with the rank dissatisfaction at the lower levels and change almost seems to be demanded. In order for Cameron to be ousted though there would have to be a feeling that the move would be beneficial to the party. Principal is demanded by a majority in the party along with someone who can present a winning strategy. It remains to be seen if any of the candidates above will be bold enough to challenge, but Cameron would likely be beaten by any legitimate challenger if gay-marriage passes the Lord’s this week. Whether a new leader will be committed enough to hold the party line and strong enough to hold both the party and the coalition together is another thing.