The popular uprising in Ukraine has resulted in ex-President Yanukovych fleeing the capitol on Saturday, apparently retreating to the safety of Kharkiv, a city in Russia-friendly Eastern Ukraine. While it’s extremely historically significant that a popular uprising has overthrown a Russia-backed government, the events also illustrate a global power struggle centering on natural gas supplies, hydraulic fracturing, and Europe’s reliance on Russia for natural gas. --
Examiner, 22 February 2014
The biggest problem for the new Ukrainian government isn’t die-hard Yanukovych supporters or the threat of Russian involvement, but the fact that it is running out of money. Like the Yanukovych government before it, the new Ukranian government is likely looking for an aid package from outside the country. This is even more complicated than it looks. Ukraine is an extremely corrupt country, and the opposition’s reputation is no better than that of the former government. Neither the United States nor the EU will be eager to toss money down this rat hole. Why give aid that the oligarchs will immediately steal and send to Switzerland? --Walter Russell Mead,
The American Interest, 24 February 2014
Europe’s biggest stockpiles of natural gas since at least 2009 are damping the threat of any potential disruptions in supplies from Ukraine, the main transit route of Russian fuel to consumers in the west. Stores would last beyond the winter heating season even if flows were cut, Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said today by phone. --Julia Mengewein, Rachel Morison and Rob Verdonck,
Bloomberg, 24 February 2014
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of the decade is likely to challenge Russian gas for market share in Europe as the region becomes increasingly dependent on imports, ConocoPhillips' head of LNG trading said. "We believe that the European gas market will be a balancing market for global gas," said Birger Balteskard, global LNG marketing manager at ConocoPhillips. Balteskard said Europe's dependence on gas imports will grow as its domestic fields age and that America's proposed LNG export terminals will help meet that need. --
Reuters, 21 February 2014
The final destination for much of the exported U.S. gas could end up being the European market, rather than Asia. As its competitors reach Asia first, U.S. exporters may send much of their LNG to Europe instead. If that is the case, the U.S. could steal some market share in Europe from Russia, according to Birger Balteskard of ConocoPhillips. This could have positive geopolitical benefits for the U.S. and Europe. While that is certainly possible, it would still need to make economic sense. --Nick Cunningham,
Oil Price, 23 February 2014
The biggest problem for the new Ukrainian government isn’t die-hard Yanukovych supporters or the threat of Russian involvement, but the fact that it is running out of money. Like the Yanukovych government before it, the new Ukranian government is likely looking for an aid package from outside the country. This is even more complicated than it looks. Ukraine is an extremely corrupt country, and the opposition’s reputation is no better than that of the former government. Neither the United States nor the EU will be eager to toss money down this rat hole. Why give aid that the oligarchs will immediately steal and send to Switzerland? --Walter Russell Mead,
The American Interest, 24 February 2014
Western governments are jubilant over the fall of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, a Russian ally. They may be underestimating Vladimir Putin: Russia has the option to hasten Ukraine's slide into chaos and wait until the hapless European Union acquiesces to - if not begs for - Russian intervention. That leaves the West with a limited number of choices. The first is to do nothing and watch the country spiral into chaos, with Russia as the eventual beneficiary. The second is to dig deep into its pockets and find US$20 billion or more to buy near-term popularity for a pro-Western government - an unlikely outcome. The third, and the most realistic, is to steer Ukraine towards a constitutional referendum including the option of partition. --Spengler,
Asia Times, 24 February 2014
