Now that Tropical Storm Sandy has finally passed and the massive clean up job is underway, it is important to soundly refute the excited claims of climate campaigners such as 350.org's Bill McKibben and journalists at the Washington Post.
True to his usual form, McKibben described Sandy as "really something that we haven't seen before" linking the hurricane to man-made climate change. The Post was even worse
proclaiming 'It's global warming, stupid' in their November 1 headline. According to the Post, "The vast majority of scientists agree"--that global warming makes "Frankenstorms" such as Sandy more likely. We know that global warming also makes other extreme weather events, such as record droughts and massive brush fires, more likely as well."
International Climate Science Coalition Advisory Board member, Dr.
Madhav L. Khandekar, an "Expert Reviewer" of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007), labels claims such as McKibben's as "absolute bunko". Considering the recent announcement from the U.K. Met office, one of the world's leading climate alarmist organizations, that there has been no global warming since 1996, the Post's assertions clearly fall into the same category.
The August 29, 2011 Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change report (NIPCC--see
www.nipccreport.com) concluded "...the data reveal there have not been any significant warming-induced increases in extreme weather events." The report showed that this was the case whether the phenomenon was precipitation, floods, drought, storms, hurricanes, fire, or other weather-related events. Khandekar, an NIPCC author, demonstrated that extreme weather events are now occurring with about the same frequency as they did during 1945-1977 cooling period.
If the world warms significantly due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and that is a big IF, temperatures at high latitudes are forecast to rise the most, reducing the difference between arctic and tropical temperatures. Since this differential drives weather, we should see weaker midlatitude cyclones in a warmer world and so less extremes in weather, not more.
So, if not global warming, then why was Sandy so devastating? It was certainly not an unusual hurricane, barely reaching category 1 when it made landfall. But there were other factors, that, taken together, conspired to create a disaster the U.S. will take many months to recover from.
- Sandy had, at times, very low central pressures, a general indicator of storm strength. In fact it set records in several cities:
This led to significant rises in sea surface elevations under the storm. Sea level can rise as much as two meters due to extraordinarily low air pressures above the ocean, which effectively "pull up" the sea surface in the vicinity. Note that low pressure records were not set in several major cities impacted by the storm. Here is when those records were set:
- Newark, NJ--1993
- New York, NY--1914
- Washington D.C.--1993
- Lynchburg, VA--1932
- Elkins, WV--1965.
- strong onshore winds on the north side of the cyclone played an important role.
- the fact that the storm hit many coastal areas at roughly the same time as high tide in these regions.
- the fact that, as the storm moved north of Cape Hatteras on the coast of North Carolina, it started to travel over regions of wider continental shelf (see image below) where the ocean is shallow for greater distances off the coast than further to the south. This tends to focus waves that then grow to higher heights than when they are travelling across deeper ocean regions.
- perhaps the most significant contributor to the massive damage of Sandy was the fact that the northern Polar Jet Stream pushed down into the Southern U.S. and presented a wall of cold air that the hurricane simply ran into. This prolonged its stay over the Eastern Seaboard and diverted its path into the coast more than would otherwise have been the case. Click on the below image to watch an animation of this phenomenon (select Length ofanimation = 5 days, Interval between images: 6 hours). This was compounded by a high pressure zone over Greenland, also holding Sandy in place longer than usual. Much of this is associated with global cooling, not warming.
The fact that the storm hit when the Earth, Sun and Moon were lined up also added slightly to the maximum extent of high water levels.
Listen in Dr. Khandekar's interview about Sandy on CFRA Radio in Ottawa on October 30 by clicking
here. Dr. Khandekar explains how tropical cyclones (called hurricanes in the North Atlantic) are not on the rise worldwide. The following graph illustrates this point well:
Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now says that there is little or no science backing claims that human-caused climate change is responsible for current extreme weather events. Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., a professor at the University of Colorado's Center for Science and Technology Policy agrees and explains that such links are not scientifically based. Prof. Pielke also asserts that there are no signs of a trend in any direction in hurricane activity over the past century. That takes into account overall damage, the number of landfalls, and the intensity of storms at landfall.
Instead of vainly trying to stop extreme weather such as Tropical Cyclone Sandy from happening, we need to harden our societies to these inevitable events by burying electrical cables underground, reinforcing buildings and other infrastructure and ensuring reliable energy sources so that we have the power to heat and cool our dwellings as needed.
In the meantime, there is no excuse for most of the power failures. Year in and year out, we see parts of the electricity infrastructure fall apart in storms that meteorologist tell us are inevitable from time to time. Power companies should pay more attention to preventive maintenance and better harden our power supply.
Climate change
should be an issue in the U.S. election. But we shouldn't be discussing GHG reduction in a futile attempt to stop climate from changing or extreme weather events from happening. Instead we should be discussing how best to prepare our growing societies for extreme weather like Tropical Storm Sandy, events that will continue to occur no matter what we do.
Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now says that there is little or no science backing claims that human-caused climate change is responsible for current extreme weather events. Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., a professor at the University of Colorado's Center for Science and Technology Policy agrees and explains that such links are not scientifically based. Prof. Pielke also asserts that there are no signs of a trend in any direction in hurricane activity over the past century. That takes into account overall damage, the number of landfalls, and the intensity of storms at landfall.
Instead of vainly trying to stop extreme weather such as Tropical Cyclone Sandy from happening, we need to harden our societies to these inevitable events by burying electrical cables underground, reinforcing buildings and other infrastructure and ensuring reliable energy sources so that we have the power to heat and cool our dwellings as needed.
In the meantime, there is no excuse for most of the power failures. Year in and year out, we see parts of the electricity infrastructure fall apart in storms that meteorologist tell us are inevitable from time to time. Power companies should pay more attention to preventive maintenance and better harden our power supply.
Climate change should be an issue in the U.S. election. But we shouldn't be discussing GHG reduction in a futile attempt to stop climate from changing or extreme weather events from happening. Instead we should be discussing how best to prepare our growing societies for extreme weather like Tropical Storm Sandy, events that will continue to occur no matter what we do.
