ICYMI: Yesterday's yuge Trump rally in Grand Rapids, MI ...And thoughts about his Michigan strategy

Yesterday, Trump spoke in Grand Rapids Michigan at a hastily organized rally that, with only two days’ notice, managed to draw over 6,000 attendees - on a holiday. Polls in Michigan have been tightening and Trump has been spending more time there. Recent Fox2/Mitchell polling shows Clinton's lead shrinking to 6 or 7 points from 11 - even before the Comey announcement - and many pollsters are quietly suggesting that the state is heading into "toss up" territory. I'm not sure I buy that. Most polls still paint the state solidly blue, and a Trump victory there is still what I'd consider a long shot. So, you may ask yourself, "why is he so focused on it?" I have a theory. The idea that Trump is about to win is predicated on the belief that the pollsters are getting it wrong. It's not that the polling is rigged as much as it is that they're simply underestimating the Trump vote. The hope is that Trump will grab a few bitter Democrats, a slightly larger-than-normal portion of the black vote, and will overperform with working class whites.

Some say the polls don't reflect this since at least some of the voters outlined above are reluctant to share their true feelings. Mix in an enthusiasm gap that favors the real estate mogul, and you have a recipe that could add up to a big GOP victory on Election Day. I'm not saying that will happen, just that it’s a theory. If it turns out to be correct, Michigan is ground zero for Trump's message. The state was brutalized by the economic downturn, employers cut jobs or shipped them overseas, and NAFTA is seen as a major component in the engine of destruction. Things are better than they were, but joblessness and poverty are still rampant in urban areas. In short, there's no better place for Trump's "Make America Great Again" message. Currently, this is the map as I see it:

I'll be the first to admit I'm being a bit optimistic with a couple of those states (looking at you NC) but that's the race as I see it right now. Trump must win all of that while flipping MI, PA, or CO. That's a tall order. Of those, Colorado is probably the easiest - unless the polls are indeed underestimating the eventual Trump turnout. Thus, Trump's focus on rust belt Dem states. If Hillary continues her implosion, and Trump can maintain his focus and stay on message, it's just possible that Michigan and Pennsylvania come into play.

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