By Guest Column —— Bio and Archives July 28, 2010
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[W]e do not find that their [influential scientists from the Climate Research Unit of the U.K.’s University of East Anglia] behaviour has prejudiced the balance of advice given to policy makers. In particular, we did not find any evidence of behaviour that might undermine the conclusions of the IPCC assessments.At face value, it seems as if the EPA could take this as the only proof needed to dismiss all of the post-Climategate calls for it to reconsider it pre-Climategate Endangerment Finding. But, as with just about everything else about the EPA’s Endangerment Finding, such action would be a gross oversimplification, a side-step around the deeper complexities, and an incomplete address of the issues raised against it.
The IPCC produces assessments of the current state of understanding of climate change, its causes and implications. Its approach is to produce the most probable account of these issues; together with their uncertainties, and to identify where there is insufficient evidence to discriminate between different interpretations of a phenomenon. Its purpose is to produce a "best estimate" of what is currently understood, through the work of a group of scientists chosen for their expertise and experience to make reasoned assessments on the balance of evidence. It is not to produce a review of the scientific literature.While Roger Pielke Jr. claims that they were not:
The idea that the IPCC presents a “best estimate” understanding based on the views of a selected group of scientists is completely contrary to how the IPCC characterizes its own work. To suggest that the IPCC is “not to produce a review of the scientific literature” is just plain wrong.However, since the title of the latest IPCC report is “The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” and not something like “The Fourth Comprehensive Review of the Science of Climate Change by the IPCC,” I side with Muir Russell rather than Roger Pielke Jr. on this one. Whether or not that is how the IPCC was supposed to function, that is how it did function. And as such, the CRU scientists involved in the IPCC process helped develop and flavor the IPCC conclusions, as revealed in Climategate emails in their full glory.
We do not find that the way that data derived from tree rings is described and presented in IPCC AR4 and shown in its Figure 6.10 is misleading. In particular, on the question of the composition of temperature reconstructions, we found no evidence of exclusion of other published temperature reconstructions that would show a very different picture. The general discussion of sources of uncertainty in the text is extensive, including reference to divergence. In this respect it represented a significant advance on the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR).OK, so the IPCC included a discussion of uncertainty and a brief mention of divergence in its text. But the IPCC grossly downplayed how significant an issue divergence may be in interpreting the temperature reconstructions. In fact, as pointed out in the Peabody Petition (which acknowledges how the IPCC dealt with the topic), there have been at least three papers published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was released that concluded that divergence eviscerates the reliability of temperature reconstructions. According to the Peabody Petition:
More importantly, after AR4 was issued, at least three studies have been published reanalyzing the data used in the proxy reconstructions cited in AR4, including two by authors whose reconstructions were used in AR4. These studies concluded that, in fact, the divergence problem makes the reconstructions unreliable. According to one study, the divergence problem “serve(s) to impede a robust comparison of recent warming during the anthropogenic period with past natural climate episodes such as the Medieval Warm Period or MWP.”57 Another study found that the divergence problem makes it “impossible to make any statements about how warm recent decades are compared to historical periods.”58 Another concluded that the divergence problem “is of importance, as it limits the suitability of tree-ring data to reconstruct long-term climate fluctuations, particularly during periods that might have been as warm or even warmer than the late twentieth century.”59 It would seem, therefore, that the IPCC should have been more cautious in dismissing the divergence problem. It would also seem that the IPCC may have understood that there was something to hide after all. 57 Rosanne D’Arrigo, et al., On the ‘divergence problem’ in northern forests: a review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes, 60 GLOB. PLANET. CHNG. 289 (2008).Clearly, Muir Russell in no way provides any scientific help for the EPA on the topic of divergence.
58 Craig Loehle, A mathematical analysis of the divergence problem in dendroclimatology, 94 CLIM. CHNG. 233 (2009).
59 Jan Esper and David Frank, Divergence pitfalls in tree-ring research, 94 CLIM. CHNG. 261, 262 (2009).
But we do find that there has been a consistent pattern of failing to display the proper degree of openness, both on the part of the CRU scientists and on the part of the UEA, who failed to recognise not only the significance of statutory requirements but also the risk to the reputation of the University and, indeed, to the credibility of UK climate scienceThis is a huge blow to the EPA’s claims of a rigorous, transparent and neutral scientific process.
In addition, we do not find that their behaviour has prejudiced the balance of advice given to policy makers. In particular, we did not find any evidence of behaviour that might undermine the conclusions of the IPCC assessments.But the Muir Russell panel only focused on a few cases of peer-review meddling involving only a few CRU scientists. As a whole, Climategate reveals a much larger number of instances involving a much larger number of people. So the Muir Russell panel’s results are woefully inadequate for the EPA’s purposes. And even in the cases that they did review, Muir Russell’s allegations that the way the Climategate scientists acted to wield their influence on the peer-review process was “ordinary,” is simply absurd. For instance, it is not “ordinary” for a group of scientists to organize a boycott of a particular journal—in this case Climate Research. Amusingly, in its submission to the Muir Russell panel (located here in its gory detail), the CRU maintains that the “CRU staff have not ‘boycotted’ the journal Climate Research.” An admission which indicates to me that they think “boycotting” a journal is not ordinary practice. Yet, back in the 2003/2004 time period, I specifically heard the term “boycott” being used to describe what was being organized against Climate Research for publishing papers that were not liked by some folks—and the Climategate emails confirm that such organization was taking place. So what to make of CRU’s claim that they did not “boycott” Climate Research? On the CRU web site there is a listing of publications by CRU scientists. On that list, I count 16 papers published by CRU scientists in the journal Climate Research during the 7 years prior to 2003/04 (by the likes of scientists like Phil Jones, Mike Hulme, Tim Osborn, Claire Goodess—all folks who make an appearance in the Climategate emails)—so obviously Climate Research was a journal frequented by CRU. In the years since 2003/04, CRU scientists published 2 papers in Climate Research (both papers by a pair of scientists, neither of whom was caught up in the Climategate scandal). Sounds like something changed in the 2003/04 timeframe. And just in case you were wondering whether the (non)boycott had any impact on the types of papers accepted by the Climate Research editors, I was a co-author on 7 papers published in Climate Research from 1996-2004 and none since. In fact, the editors at Climate Research haven’t considered my last two submissions worthy of even being sent out for review, a fate that I would guess happens to less than 5% of all papers submitted to Climate Research, and one most commonly reserved for submissions that aren’t written in readable English. I may not be the world’s greatest writer, but I do write in English. So, once again, it sounds like something changed at that journal in the 2003/2004 timeframe. If you think the stink raised by CRU et al. didn’t have something to do with it, then you must sit on the Muir Russell panel. And the Climate Research affair is just one of the instances of strong-arming peer-review that is evident in the Climategate emails. There are plenty of others—all well-documented in, for example, the Peabody Petition.
Items of notes and interest from the web.