Pollsters Still Counting Eggs Before Their Chickens Hatch

By Judi McLeod —— Bio and Archives October 24, 2020

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If Trump defies polls again in 2020, “my profession is done’, pollster Frank Luntz laments. Waah! One more thing to blame on Donald J. Trump, that incorrigible rascal. Against all odds, Trump beat the polls in 2016, and the Democrats and media will NEVER forgive him.

In fact, both will deny him a 2020 landslide by detaining his victory by claiming the vote hasn’t been counted because: “Every vote counts” even ones from the dead. The media fell hook, line and sinker for polls that indicated that the election of Hillary Clinton in 2016 was inevitable. Celebrities all the way from former President Barack Obama to film star Tom Hanks and every star in between added “Donald Trump will never be elected”. Then came the embarrassing televised sob fest when election results proved Trump the winner. Here we go again! The media never went after the pollsters following the outcome of the 2016 election, but just like the cold winter weather coming that November, it was all Trump’s fault “Pollster Frank Luntz told Fox News on Thursday night that if poll predictions are wrong about the 2020 election between President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden, his "profession is done" in terms of faith and confidence from the public. (The Hill, Oct. 23, 2020)

“Recent polls show Biden ahead nationally in some polls by double digits, with the former vice president ahead in the majority of battleground states. Biden is also competing with Trump in states like Georgia and Texas, which are normally carried by Republican candidates. “The assessment comes nearly four years after President Trump defied almost all polls, upsetting former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election by winning the Electoral College, 304-227. “Trump, however, lost the popular vote.  "Fox News anchor Bret Baier asked Luntz during the network's pre-debate coverage on Thursday night what the consequences would be for pollsters if the industry gets it wrong again. "Well, I hate to acknowledge it, because that's my industry — at least partially — but the public will have no faith. No confidence. Right now, the biggest issue is the trust deficit. And pollsters did not do a good job in 2016. So if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden had a 5- or 6-point lead, my profession is done.” “Many election forecasts, including from The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight, gave Clinton more than a 70 percent chance of winning the morning of Nov. 8, 2016. “On Oct. 21, 2016, the Times "Upshot" even went as high as giving the former secretary of State a 93 percent chance to take the White House.