If Trudeau does not capitulate and do a deal with Trump this week, Trudeau will engineer a made-in-Canada recession which will adversely affect thousands of Canadian families
Trump is not the bully here. Stop blaming Trump for being Trump and standing up for America's interests. That is what American presidents do. The problem lies once again with Trudeau's arrogance and incompetence. The delay in Canada reaching a NAFTA deal with the U.S. and the foreseeable imposition of U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada is all Trudeau's fault. Trudeau could have avoided this situation months ago
Our best loss (and smallest loss) on the NAFTA negotiations was our first loss. Months ago Trudeau should have taken a hit on NAFTA but agreed to a NAFTA skinny deal giving Trump the victory over some minor matters. But Trudeau wasted valuable months talking about and promoting gender, climate change and aboriginal matters. These matters were quite irrelevant issues to the core issues at play.
The emphasis on these ridiculous matters just inflamed Trump and U.S. NAFTA negotiator Lighthizer. Trudeau further upset Trump by publicly backstabbing him after the conclusion of the G7 discussions hosted by Trudeau in Canada, when Trudeau publicly bragged that he had stood up to Trump and informed Trump that Canada would not be pushed around by Trump.
Trump retaliated by calling Trudeau “very dishonest” and “weak”.
Canadian Foreign Minister and chief NAFTA negotiator Chrystia Freeland then gave a talk in Washington, implicitly criticizing the Trump administration for undermining the rule-based international world order, thus further alienating Trump and further inflaming the situation.
The Trudeau/Freeland team should have stuck to the core auto content issues. They should have opened up a little on Canada’s heavily subsidized dairy market as Trudeau had done with the Trans Pacific trade agreement and the EU trade agreement.
Trudeau et al should have agreed months ago to a modified sunset clause and agreed to preventing NAFTA companies from suing NAFTA governments which helps Mexico more than the U.S. and Canada.
Trudeau should have first entered a deal with Trump and then the U.S. and Canada could have put pressure on Mexico to be more flexible because due to low Mexican wages and few Mexican environmental controls, Canada had lost thousands of manufacturing jobs to Mexico as well as the U.S.
Trump would have taken a modified deal and victory months ago.
But Trudeau/Freedland et al were not serious about coming to a deal. They ragged the puck. Played for time. Thinking Trump would be impeached. Or because they did not like his style. Or they thought a Canada-friendly Congress would stop a NAFTA reset in favour of the status quo.
But both the Sanders Democrats and the Trump pro working class GOP want to tear up NAFTA or make it better for the U.S., so American politics are against this NAFTA deal “as is”.
Trudeau representing a country 1/10 the size of U.S., in which 75% of our exports go to the U.S. and U.S. trade represents 25% of our GDP- cannot win in a trade war. Canada had a losing hand at the beginning of the NAFTA negotiations.
The new US/Mexico trade agreement has made Canada’s losing hand even worse.
Trudeau should make the deal now. This week. And save the steel, aluminum and auto industries or it will get much worse than better.
Trudeau has to surrender on the dairy supply management system and the removal of the Chapter 19 dispute resolution clause (already agreed to by Mexico).
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Otherwise, at the end of this week, Trump will proceed to impose tariffs on Canadian autos produced in Canada. The foreseeable result will be the loss of tens of thousands of jobs, primarily in Ontario. One in every five Ontario jobs are related to the auto industry.
American auto companies and Canadian auto parts companies will have no problem closing down Canadian operations and shifting them to the U.S. south.
Even an anti-Trump Congress will choose more American jobs over Canada’s economy.
If Trudeau does not capitulate and do a deal with Trump this week, Trudeau will engineer a made-in-Canada recession which will adversely affect thousands of Canadian families.
If there is no U.S. trade agreement with Canada, say good-bye to sunny ways and sunny days.
Mitch Wolfe, a graduate of Harvard University, is the author of “Trump: How He Captured The Trump White House”, which he wrote and had published prior to the election. (available on Amazon.com)
Trump is not the bully here. Stop blaming Trump for being Trump and standing up for America's interests. That is what American presidents do. The problem lies once again with Trudeau's arrogance and incompetence. The delay in Canada reaching a NAFTA deal with the U.S. and the foreseeable imposition of U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada is all Trudeau's fault. Trudeau could have avoided this situation months ago
Our best loss (and smallest loss) on the NAFTA negotiations was our first loss. Months ago Trudeau should have taken a hit on NAFTA but agreed to a NAFTA skinny deal giving Trump the victory over some minor matters. But Trudeau wasted valuable months talking about and promoting gender, climate change and aboriginal matters. These matters were quite irrelevant issues to the core issues at play. 
