Nik on the Numbers
The most recent ballot tracking by Nanos Research shows that the Liberals and the Conservatives are gripped in a tie. The increase in support for the Liberal Party has been driven by a pickup in the province of Quebec.
Stephen Harper continues to hold an advantage as Canadians' top pick for best Prime Minister. Overall, the initial reaction to the new Liberal leader has been positive, particularly in Quebec. Research indicates that currently Michael Ignatieff has had a positive impact on Canadians' impression of the Liberal Party of Canada.
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The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: [url=http://www.nanosresearch.com]http://www.nanosresearch.com[/url]. You can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Methodology
Polling between January 3 and January 7, 2009. (Random Telephone Survey of 1,003 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). A survey of 1,003 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Choice)
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos Omnibus Survey conducted in November 2008.
Committed Voters - Canada (N=902, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal Party 34% (+4)
Conservative Party 33% (+1)
NDP 19% (-1)
BQ 7% (-2)
Green Party 7% (-3)
(*Note: Undecided 10%)
Best PM Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Read and Rotate]
Canada (N=1,003, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
Stephen Harper 36% (+1)
Michael Ignatieff 23% (+12)*
Jack Layton 15% (-5)
Gilles Duceppe 5% (-2)
Elizabeth May 5% (-1)
None/ Unsure 17% (-5)
*The number in parenthesis denotes the change from Stephane Dion to Michael Ignatieff as leader.
Ignatieff's Net Impact on Impression of Liberal Party: As you may know, Stephane Dion recently stepped down as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and Michael Ignatieff was made interim leader. As a result of these changes, has your impression of the Liberal Party become more favourable, less favourable or has it not changed?
(Net Impact is derived by subtracting less favourable from more favourable)
Canada +26
Atlantic Canada +23
Quebec +36
Ontario +29
Western Canada + 17
Nik Nanos, CMRP
President & CEO
email:
nnanos@nanosresearch.com
web: [url=http://www.nanosresearch.com]http://www.nanosresearch.com[/url]