By Robert Laurie ——Bio and Archives--February 29, 2016
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OK, everyone, before we get started you should enjoy a massive grain of salt.
About six weeks ago we began hearing rumors that Trump was doing surprisingly well in states that had, at least since 1992, proven extremely difficult for the GOP to crack. Among them were Michigan, Pennsylvania, and ...New York. No one was arguing that a Trump win in these states would be likely, but the usual political thinking suggests that, if he can keep things close in such hostile territory, true swing states and red states should be a lock.Confidential polling data shows Hillary Clinton could lose the presidential election in heavily Democratic New York to Donald Trump as the GOP front-runner's support grows to the point of being "surprisingly strong,” The Post has learned. The poll results, from Democratic and Republican legislative races, have surprised many leading Dems, virtually all of whom have endorsed Clinton, while confounding and energizing GOP leaders, many of whom until recently have been opposed to Trump. "There are some Democrats who think that Hillary can be taken if Trump mounts a strong campaign,'' one of the state's most prominent Democrats said.
Most of the polling didn't address the possibility that former Mayor Michael Bloomberg would run as an independent, but some of it did — and found the former mayor took "significant'' votes away from Clinton in heavily Democratic New York City and the surrounding suburbs, a source familiar with the data said. The new polls, a second source said, showed Trump's support, even without Bloomberg in the race, was "surprisingly strong'' in Westchester and on Long Island, the key suburbs often viewed as crucial swing bellwethers on how statewide elections will turn out. The polls found that Clinton often had higher negative ratings with voters than did the more controversial Trump, whose inflammatory pronouncements have often angered and even horrified many of his fellow Republicans.Is it possible that this was written as an oblique way of telling Bloomberg not to run? Yes. Is it possible that the folks running the Post are a bunch of angry Romney fans doing anything they can to torpedo Hillary? Yuppers. Is it possible that New Yorkers were burned by Hillary once and don't really want to go down that path again? You bet. Is it possible the Post just hates Hillary so much that they'll run any story if it hurts her? Could be. Is it possible that Trump is, in defiance of all conventional wisdom, doing better than anyone expected in a place that should despise him politically? Well, that's the million dollar question. For now, the Post seems to think Hillary's grip on the Empire State is slipping, and we'll gleefully live in a world where that's the case. There's simply no way to argue that's not good news for Trump supporters and Republicans in general.
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