Iran need only close the Strait of Hormuz and crater eight runways to strand 40,000 US troops. That’ll be Day One. Saddam doubted Americans could stomach a 10,000-casualty battle. Trump seems determined to test that hypothesis;
A dozen US bases, housing 40,000 personnel, hunker perilously close to Iran.
These include two air bases in northern Iraq’s Kurdish region. Built by Saddam Hussein, Harir Air Base was seized by US forces in 2003. A small contingent remains at Harir while more attention lavishes on Erbil International Airport, 70 kilometers southwest of Harir, 115 kilometers from Iran.
The US spent $550 million upgrading Erbil’s huge runway and on building adjacent facilities. They are presently laying down helipads. This work complements the US Consulate in Erbil (America’s largest) completed in December 2025 (price tag: $800 million). The 101st Airborne recently relocated to Erbil.
Around 14,000 US personnel call Kuwait home. Camp Arifjan--south of Kuwait City--serves as a logistics hub for all branches of the US military. The 1996 terror bombing of an American barracks in Khobar, Saudi Arabia inspired Arifjan. Construction of this terror-proof camp began in 1999. Arifjan boasts a large heliport and all the amenities of an American town, notably franchise restaurants. Arifjan is 105 kilometers from Iran.
Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem Air Base sits 175 kilometers from Iran and, equally worrying, 37 kilometers from Iraq. Built for the Kuwaiti Air Force before the Gulf War (1990-91) the base became, by 1998, a US/UK staging area. Both Kuwaiti and US air forces use Al Salem’s two runways. As well, although Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base houses almost the entire Kuwaiti Air Force, US aircraft utilize its two runways. Appearing at the launch of the Iraq War (2003), Camp Buehring boasts one runway and over 10,000 housing units. Established in 2000, Camp Patriot (a.k.a. Kuwait Naval Base), with its lengthy pier, provides a critical port for the Navy and Marines.
The United Arab Emirates hosts several small US facilities alongside the Al Dhafra Air Base. Located 275 kilometers west of Iran, Al Dhafra evolved into a US hub following the Gulf War. CENTCOM’s intel, surveillance, and mid-air refueling operations revolve around Al Dhafra. The base offers full amenities (gyms, restaurants etc) to 5,000 US troops. UAE and French air forces also use its two runways.
Privately-owned and commercially oriented, Jebel Ali Port is the US Navy’s busiest Middle Eastern port of call. Jebel is essential for Fifth Fleet operations. It lays 305 kilometers from Iran.
Some 10,000 US troops are stationed at Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base. Al Udeid serves as CENTCOM headquarters and as the locale for regional reinforcements. The base sits 190 kilometers from Iran’s coast. Conceived during the Gulf War, and completed by the Qataris in 1996, Al Udeid has received $8 billion in upgrades.
Naval Support Activity (NSA) Bahrain sports 9,000 US personnel. Situated 250 kilometers across the Gulf from Iran, NSA hosts the Fifth Fleet and a US Coast Guard force. Britain gifted NSA to the US after Bahrain gained independence in 1971. NSA lay dormant until a 1995 reactivation wrought upgrades and expansions. The Fifth Fleet, a World War II creature, also reactivated in 1995. The Fifth oversees the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Red Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean.
Last and least, are four Omani facilities. The Port of Duqm, on the Arabian Sea coast, is used intermittently by US, British and Indian naval vessels. Duqm sits 685 kilometers from Iran. Americans are tenants at Oman’s RAFO Thumrait Air Base (as are Brits and Indians.) Thumrait lays 750 kilometers from Iran. US aircraft are also spotted at the two runways on Oman’s Masirah Island (732 kilometers from Iran), and at the two runways at Muscat International Airport--Oman’s flagship airport (275 kilometers from Iran).
Above-described bases are 1989-2003 era artifacts; i.e., back when Saddam was enemy number one. They were neither designed nor situated for modern warfare with Iran.
These bases appeared aside a barely industrialized Iran. In 1999 Iran produced 6 million tons of steel. Now they produce 31 million. (Per capita, Iran produces 50% more steel than the US.) Iran makes more cement than the US. In 1998 Iran’s automobile industry cracked 100,000 units per year. Last year they built 1.2 million. Since 1999 Iranian electricity output has grown 300%.
Iran’s burgeoning industrial might is most evident in its weapons sector; notably, missile manufacturing. Our media focusses on Iran’s long-range missiles because these weapons can reach Israel. The greatest threat to US regional bases, however, comes from truck-portable Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) of which Iran brandishes twenty models.
The dated but deployable Shahab-2 is a knockoff of North Korea’s Scud-C. It has a range of 500 kilometers, and while not particularly accurate, could consistently hit US bases. A 770 kg warhead compensates for errancy. Shahabs are liquid-fueled meaning crews endure 2 hours of exposure while fueling-up before launch.
The Fateh-313 represents a newer generation of solid-fueled SRBMs. Debuting in 2015, Fateh-313s can punt a 380 kg warhead 500 kilometers. Guidance systems are accurate enough for Houthis to deploy them as anti-ship missiles. Solid-fuel allows the launch crew to “shoot-and-scoot” in minutes.
The more formidable Zolfaghar, unveiled in 2016, bears a 590 kg warhead and a 700-kilometer range. Zolfaghars come with advanced anti-jamming and inertial guidance features. Russia buys Zolfaghars.
The RAAD-500 would be welcomed into any arsenal in the world. Paraded in 2020, RAAD-500s are made of carbon fiber (including their engines) rendering them half the weight of comparable steel missiles. RAAD-500 warheads separate from the rocket body upon re-entry then maneuver evasively as they approach their targets at Mach 8. Iran claims RAAD-500s can reliably hit a 60-meter diameter circle from 500 kilometers away.
How many SRBMs hath Iran? The number kicking around the internet is 3,000, but such guessing dates to mid-2025. Iran feverishly builds more.
On January 8, 2020, in retaliation for Soleimani’s assassination, Iran struck central Iraq’s now abandoned Ain al-Asad Air Base with several SRBMs. They sought to minimize casualties.
A second love tap came June 23, 2025 following the US bombing of Iran’s enrichment facilities. Fourteen missiles were fired. A few hit home.
Come a real war Americans will face hundreds of SRBMs arriving simultaneously with ground assaults, ship-to-shore strikes and an overwhelming murmuration of drones. America’s over-stretched inventory of over-priced interceptors cannot protect these bases.
These bases are relics from an era when Iran lacked the capacity to moonscape them in hours. Iran need only close the Strait of Hormuz and crater eight runways to strand 40,000 US troops. That’ll be Day One.
Saddam doubted Americans could stomach a 10,000-casualty battle. Trump seems determined to test that hypothesis.
Read next: U.S. National Interest Demanded The B2 Strikes Against Iranian Nuclear Capability
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William Walter Kay, Ecofascism.com
