Why Jeb's endorsement of Cruz might matter more than you think

I think Rob is right when he says that practically no voters can what Jeb Bush tells them to do. There were never many Jeb voters to begin with, and surely not many who might still be deciding between Trump and Cruz were sitting around waiting for marching orders from Jeb. But I don't think Jeb's endorsement of Cruz was really about persuading voters. It was about giving the signal to establishment campaign donors that - however much they may not like it - party regulars know their only hope of beating Trump at this point is to get behind Cruz. And Cruz is going to need more money than he's got right now, which will have to come from the same people who used to eschew Cruz largely at the direction of Team Bush.

Change of plans, fellas. Per Jeb (and almost certainly Dubya as well), it's now OK to bankroll Cruz:

For Cruz, the risk of being cast as an establishment favorite is offset by the suspicions of conservative supporters who point to Trump's past record of supporting liberal politicians and causes. For conservatives, if Cruz is not the face of the anti-Trump movement, he's the only vehicle they have left. "He's just the guy that's there that's a strong conservative, that has won a bunch of states, has a real organization, has raised money, and run a really good campaign," said Austin Barbour, who has served as a strategist for former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and later for Jeb Bush. The tepid establishment endorsements might also minimize any downside for Cruz with his disenchanted base. "Frankly, I don't think that it hurts Senator Cruz to have a lot of, quote-unquote, establishment figures say 'I'm going to support him, but I don't love him,' " McGrath said.

---

Meanwhile, those endorsements also are opening new doors for the money that will be needed to take on the largely self-funding real estate mogul and reality TV star. "I know it didn't go unnoticed among the network of donors and grassroots supporters who were working very hard for Jeb," McGrath said. "Throughout the extended Bush political family, there's no doubt that Jeb's endorsement is going to carry a lot of weight."

This has given rise to a lot of speculation I've heard for some time, which is that Cruz and the Bushes were always in bed with each other - and that this is proof Cruz is really just another patrician, get-along-by-going-along Republican. There is so much wrong with that, it's hard to know where to start. For one thing, the story I've heard is that when Cruz first decided to run for the Senate in 2012, he sought out George W. Bush to seek his support, and talked at length about how he would be a thorn in the side of the establishment. W didn't care for that talk, and commented to his people, "I guess he doesn't want my support." Cruz has always been the guy who was willing to throw bombs if that's what it took to bring about real change in Washington, which is exactly why Mitch McConnell types don't like him. The Bush approach has usually been more cautious, although George W. was willing to take some pretty big risks when an issue mattered enough to him. I like the Bushes (George W. more so than Jeb or H.W.) and I also like Ted Cruz, but it's always been very clear they were never really close allies of each other. And it's just as clear that the only reason Jeb endorsed Cruz was as a tactical maneuver to stop Trump. Everything we know about Jeb Bush suggests that John Kasich would be more his kind of president, but Jeb can read the delegate count just as you and I can, and he realizes that if anyone has a chance to slow Trump's momentum, it's Cruz. And Cruz is going to need money to do that, so Jeb decided to give the high sign to his donors to help Cruz out. I'm not sure that means they'll listen. The money they gave to Jeb's campaign wasn't very well spent, after all. And I'm not even so sure Jeb's objective here it to see Cruz get the nomination. I think a lot of establishment types are rooting for Cruz only to the point where he could deny Trump a delegate majority, but not to the point where Cruz could get one himself. That would throw the convention open and give the party leaders the chance to broker the nomination of someone more to their liking. There's no guarantee that strategy works, of course. Cruz could indeed to on a winning streak and win a majority. Or he could end up with so much momentum that it becomes impossible to deny him the nomination. Or all of this could fail and Trump could win the nomination straight-up. But make no mistake. There's only one thing that endorsement is about. And as Randy Moss would say, it's straight cash, homie. That might be of some real help to Cruz - certainly far more than any tiny influence Jeb Bush might have on voters.