By Fraser Institute —— Bio and Archives--June 22, 2023
Much of our understanding of anthropogenic climate change, and much of the debate over climate science and climate policy is based on information generated via mathematical modeling. Rarely, if ever, do we see much discussion of empirical measurements of climate change; global average temperature and sea level are rare exceptions. But empirical measurements of climate policy impacts, empirical measurements of changes that might, or might not, validate modeled projections of such climate changes, or empirical measurement of meteorological (weather) changes are scarce to non-existent in most media.
The list of modeled components of climate-change discourse is endless and model output information dominates nearly every element of discourse about the climate: modeling of how the climate works, modeling of what human activities influence the global climate, modeling of how human activities might influence the local climate, modeling of how climate changes manifest as weather or meteorological changes; modeling of how those activities might change over time, modeling of how public policies involving greenhouse gas controls might mitigate climate change; modeling of how people might respond to climate policies behaviourally (economically) and on and on.
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By Ted K on 2023 06 22
We saw similar use of computer modelling in the COVID-19 pandemic whose predictions were often way off causing panic among politicians and the rest of society who trusted the "experts" as a source of truth. What bugged me as a Canadian resident during that time was Dr Tam, Canada's chief medical officer, who almost every time time I heard her speak about the pandemic espoused a policy based on computer model predictions rather than on evidence based medicine, making me wonder about her qualifications to be in that position.
Computer modelling is only as good as the assumptions that are put into it. Assumptions are not empirical facts and can be tweaked to favour an ideology. Many people still consider computer modelling to be a science, but if it is, it is the lowest form of science possible. I simply put computer model predictions on my back burner and seek empirical evidence based facts instead which often contradict these model predictions. But the media and politicians seem incapable of such research; besides, computer modelling is ideologically convenient as a "science".
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