Russo-Ukrainian War: Year of the Falcon

Last July, Ukraine owned several dozen vintage Soviet/Russian aircraft. This July, Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) Commander Kryvonozhko should oversee 85 American F16s and 20 French M2000-5s. Additionally, planes and parts donated by eastern NATO states should boost UAF’s Soviet/Russian fleet to 95, including 40 Mig29s. This buildup, avoided by mainstream media, constitutes transformative escalation.

On February 24, 2022 Putin foresaw a three-day war ending with Russian tanks in Kyiv. That April, Russia’s assault on Kyiv collapsed while Ukraine’s eastern front held. As multi-year warfare came into focus, NATO convened the first of hundreds of meetings on Ukrainian air power.

F16s once numbered among NATO’s top warplanes

At war’s outset Ukraine possessed 130ish Mig29s, Su24s, Su25s and Su27s – half unflyable. (They’ve since lost around 100.) Soviet/Russian warplanes arrivals began, April 2022, with Bulgaria’s transfer of 14 Su25s (Apparently, an anonymous NATO partner purchased them from Bulgaria. As with many weapon transfers, this is disputed). That November, the Dutch suggested giving F16s to eastern NATO members to facilitate three-way deals allowing UAF to acquire Mig29s.

By August 2023 Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria et al had delivered: 27 Mig29s and 18 Su25s. As well, decommissioned UAF planes took flight thanks to donated parts. Deliveries continue.

Separately, a Dutch-Belgian-Danish initiative rallied NATO members to equip Ukraine with F16s.

F16s once numbered among NATO’s top warplanes. As members upgrade to F35s their F16s become expendable. For every F35 Lockheed Martin (LM) sends to an F16-owning NATO country, one F16 could fly to Ukraine. (LM tries to build 150+ F35s per year, however, in 2023 they completed only 97.)

General Dynamics unveiled F16 Fighting Falcons in 1974 and produced them until 1996 when LM took-over. Production ended in 2017, but resumed in 2019. 4,600 F16s have been made! 2,200 are in service across 25 countries. USA keeps 1,000 in service.

F16s are small aircraft designed for air-to-air combat. F16 maneuverability went unmatched for 40 years. On the other hand, they’re bottle rockets – 7,500 kg of fuel pours into an 8,600 kg frame. A tank encompassing the plane’s belly is supplemented by 600 gallon tanks suspended from each wing. F16s cannot carry over 3 tonnes of weapons nor venture past 500-kilometers. Top speed, Mach 2, is bested by many warplanes.

Mid-2025 Ukraine should have 85ish F16s on the tarmac, and hundreds of trained pilots standing by

While the Cold War conjured “air supremacy” jets (like F16s), envisioned mass supersonic dogfights never materialized. Uncle Sam, instead, fought Grenada, Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya etc--countries without air power. Air supremacy fighters were repurposed for ground assault and re-designated: “multirole fighters.” Now, ground-based anti-aircraft supremacy engenders a second repurposing. Rather than brave enemy airspace, warplanes launch projectiles from their own skies. These modern catapults require little acrobatics, alacrity or stealth.

F16s-for-Ukraine’s breakthrough came with UK PM Sunak’s May 2023 endorsement. Three months later, at an Iceland-hosted Council of Europe confab, Britain and Netherlands proclaimed their intent to train Ukrainian F16 pilots. Biden then approved F16 re-exports to Ukraine.

The July 2023 NATO Summit (Vilnius) debuted the F16 Training Coalition (Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, UK, Norway, Canada, Romania, Lithuania, Greece, Portugal, Poland). Members donate F16s and/or money, trainers, land, technicians etc. Not possessing F16s, Canada set aside $389 million for training. Britain, also without F16s, hosts a pre-training school whereat UAF pilots fly comparable aircraft before jetting to Romania’s Fetesti Training Center – which began receiving Dutch F16-trainers, November 2023.

Pilot schools in Romania, USA, Denmark, Netherlands and Belgium offer two-month courses requiring 60 sorties, 240 hours of academic work, and 40 hours in simulators.

In July 2024 Dutch and Danish Prime Ministers met Biden at the White House to hype the Air Force Capability Coalition For Ukraine. Weeks later the first F16 landed in Ukraine. (This aircraft’s downing, days later, by Ukrainian air defenses, prompted Zelensky to replace UAF Commander Oleschuk with Kryvonozhko.) Mid-December arrivals of Denmark’s second batch of F16s brought UAF’s F16 fleet to 40ish.

F16 donors are: Belgium (30), Denmark (19), Netherlands (24, plus 18 trainers), Norway (6), and Greece (32). Greece’s F16s went to the US for repairs, upgrades or cannibalization. Some Belgian F16s won’t be immediately available. Mid-2025 Ukraine should have 85ish F16s on the tarmac, and hundreds of trained pilots standing by.

As NATO controls fuel and ammo, UAF couldn’t go rogue for long… but inflicting war-crime carnage wouldn’t take long

F16s-for-Ukraine has room to grow. Romania has 32 F16s (purchased from Norway). Poland has 36 F16s and 12 trainers. Greece has scores. Slovakia, Portugal and Turkey possess F-16s. NATO members all.

Many NATO members eschew participation. Americans could multiply the program tenfold, but don’t. Italy and Spain contribute little to Ukraine’s war effort; nothing to UAF. Germany provides substantial military aid, nothing to UAF. Citing cost, corruption, or adversity to adventurism, politicians across NATO-dom oppose military aid for Ukraine. To them, F16s-for-Ukraine is money burned, or worse: an opportunity for rogue UAF actors to blast Russian cities and nuclear facilities. They dread escalation.

A French program should see 20 Mirage 2000-5s in Ukraine mid-2025. Sweden will donate 20 Gripens once the F-16 program is operational. Argentina pledged 5 Super-Etandards. Potential alternatives include Typhoons – another common NATO warplane destined for boneyards.

Delegates to the Montreal-hosted NATO Parliament (November, 2024) resolved to give Ukraine more multirole fighters and long-range missiles. “Long-range” means these air-launched cruise missiles:

• Storm Shadow (450 kg warhead, 550-kilometer range, $1 to $2 million per unit).
• JASSM (450 kg warhead, 370-kilometer range, $700,000 per unit).

Other air-launched long-range options:

• Harpoon (221 kg warhead, 220-kilometer range, $1.5 million).
• HARM (68 kg warhead, 300-kilometer range, $300,000).

Long-range also means high cost and high risk of interception. As well, such weapons might target civilian residences or nuclear plants. As NATO controls fuel and ammo, UAF couldn’t go rogue for long… but inflicting war-crime carnage wouldn’t take long.

This war accelerates glide-bomb evolution. For 40 years air forces have converted free-fall bombs into gliders. The main US offering, JSOW, glides 100 kilometers when released at high altitudes.

But for NATO, Ukraine wouldn’t own a warplane

Shorter-range UAF weapons include:

• Brimstones fly 20 to 60 kilometers (depending on model) at Mach 1.3; albeit carrying only 6 kg warheads. 1,000 shipped; more pending. Cost: $150,000.
• Mavericks deliver heavier warheads (57 kg or 140 kg) but only 20 kilometers. Cost: $17,000 to $240,000.
• Hammers are missile-glider hybrids using booster rockets to punt 125-to-1,000 kg warheads 70 kilometers. France will drop-off several hundred Hammers in 2025.

But for NATO, Ukraine wouldn’t own a warplane. NATO supplies all ammo and fuel. All active UAF pilots are NATO-trained; so to, much of UAF brass. More than Ukraine’s army, UAF is a Brussels proxy. As fighting spills skyward, it becomes NATO v Russia.

Europeans, not Americans, are the air-warhawks; none more than Dutch King Willem and his First Minister Rutte. They initiated aircraft transfers, donated their entire F16 and trainer fleet, and were first to greenlight airstrikes inside Russia. Last October, Rutte became NATO Secretary General!

UAF could launch hundreds of strikes a day; but doesn’t. Their boast of 50 sorties a day in 2024, no doubt exaggerated, is doable with two dozen planes. UAF began launching Storm Shadows from Su24s in May 2023. One Su24 could have launched all Storm Shadows to date. Downing a UAF plane makes news; indicating how few are at risk. Reportage on Ukraine’s F16s recount lore-larded tales of drone and missile interception; i.e., work better left to ground-base weapons. F16s, seemingly, undertake defensive missions only. UAF sequesters jets whilst acquiring more.

Idleness might result from fuel and ammo shortages. It might reflect a methodical roll-out on a multi-year timetable, or …they’re prepping a blitz.

Unleashing the new UAF, suddenly or slowly, will surely trigger an avalanche of Russian ordnance… and the war shall soar.