INSS

The Threat of Connected Devices to the Internet

At least three consecutive waves of complex online attacks were directed at Domain Name System (DNS) servers operated by Dyn, a US internet infrastructure provider. The attack on October 21, 2016 consisted of a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack, and blocked access to thousands of websites, including Netflix, Amazon, Twitter, Airbnb, the New York Times, PayPal, and more. Immediately, suspicions centered on Russia and China as having both the motivation and the ability to plan and execute such an attack.

The United States on the Verge of Military Intervention against Assad?

On October 3, 2016, the US State Department announced the suspension of bilateral talks with Moscow seeking a ceasefire in Syria, and cancellation of a Joint Implementation Center for action against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. State Department spokesman John Kirby said, “The United States spared no effort in negotiating and attempting to implement an arrangement with Russia aimed at reducing violence…Unfortunately…Russia and the Syrian regime have chosen to pursue a military course.” In Moscow, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson placed the responsibility on the United States, and President Putin announced the suspension of the agreement signed in 2000 to destroy plutonium. The United States expressed “disappointment” with this decision.

The United States, Syria, and Chemical Weapons: An Unfinished Symphony

In the summer of 2013, more than one thousand civilians in a suburb of Damascus were murdered in an attack by the Syrian military that apparently included use of the chemical agent sarin.

Jordan Chooses Stability

On September 20, 2016, Jordan held elections for its eighteenth parliament. That same day, King Abdullah II delivered his address at the United Nations General Assembly, praising his people for actively participating in the democratic process. Given the blood-soaked civil wars in neighboring Iraq and Syria and the freeze on both the internal process in Lebanon and the Israeli-Palestinian political process, the king has every right to be proud of his nation holding elections. They were transparent for the most part, supervised by more than one hundred European Union and other observers. Although one district required a second round of voting, Jordan emerged from the election as an island of stability in a seething Middle Eastern sea, a nation successfully overcoming internal difficulties that have worsened because of the humanitarian and political chaos plaguing the region.

The Superpower Cyber War and the US Elections

In late July 2016, about the time of the opening of the Democratic National Convention (DNC), the WikiLeaks website publicized embarrassing emails from the accounts of senior party staffers.

The Agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority on Electricity

In September 2016, an agreement was signed between the Israeli Ministry of Finance, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), and the Palestinian Authority (via the Minister of Civil Affairs), to regulate Palestinian debt payment to the Israel Electric Corporation.

Structuring Israel’s Cyber Defense

April 2016 marked the official beginning of the National Cyber Defense Authority (“the Authority”). Its primary function is “to direct, operate, and execute as needed all defensive and operational efforts at the national level in cyberspace, based on a systemic approach, to allow a full and constant defensive response to cyberattacks, including the handling of cyberspace threats and cyber events in real time, formulation of a current situation assessment, gathering and research of intelligence, and work with the special institutions” (Government Decision No. 2444 of February 15, 2015). The director of the Authority is subordinate to the head of the National Cyber Staff, who is defined as the head of the national cyberspace operation.

Cautious Pessimism: The Ceasefire in Syria – Prospects for Success

Although the Syrian regime welcomed the Russian-American ceasefire agreement, President Assad was quick to proclaim his determination to reestablish Syrian state control over all parts of the country that are currently in the hands of “terrorists.”

A Russian-US Agreement on a Ceasefire in Syria

The agreement between Russia and the United States on a ceasefire in Syria is a compromise between rival powers. The respective political objectives of the two sides led the parties to the negotiating table, but likewise made it difficult for them to conclude an agreement. The divergent goals may also make it difficult to implement the agreement.

Russia’s Initiative on the Israeli-Palestinian Process: Another Move to Regain Influence in the Middle East

Russia is taking action to promote a political initiative regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, focusing on an attempt to convene a summit in Moscow between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas. From the outset Israel was not enthusiastic about the Russian initiative, but was compelled to respond favorably to the proposal, in order not to be perceived as being anti-peace and due to its concern about disturbing its fragile relationship with Russia.

D Minus Seven Years, and Counting

The most important reservation regarding the JCPOA is the high probability that after ten years, Iran will proceed with the production of highly enriched uranium, and thus will have the capability to produce nuclear weapons almost at will, with a breakout time reduced to two months, if not less.

The Weakening of Wilayat Sinai

Wilayat Sinai, an organization identified with the Islamic State, has recently suffered a series of serious blows from the Egyptian army. Most prominent among them was the air strike in early August 2016 that killed dozens of senior commanders, launched as part of a targeted campaign against terrorism in Egypt in general, and in Sinai in particular.

The Economic Devastation of Syria: Strategic Implications

While even before the crisis, Syria was a poor economy, in the last five years GDP per capita fell to less than a third of its pre-war level. Approximately 11 percent of the population in Syria were killed or injured in the course of the war.

Russia Stations Fighter Jets in Iran for Use in Syria

On August 16, 2016, the governments of Russia and Iran announced that Russia deployed fighter jets at the Iranian airbase in Hamadan in western Iran, southwest of Tehran, and that the planes have already executed sorties against military targets of the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Fateh a-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) in Aleppo, Deir a-Zor, and Adlib, in Syria. The planes stationed are of two models: heavy long range bombers of the TU-22M3 model, and SU-34 bombers. The announcement did not specify how many bombers were deployed to Iran, or how long they could be expected to operate from Iranian soil.

Syria: No “Situation Freeze”

The current reality in Syria is gradually prompting a change in US policy, out of an understanding that the lines between the many Sunni actors operating in the war-torn state are vague and elusive.

Egypt and Turkey following the Attempted Coup: The Interrupted Thaw

A resolution to the crisis in Egypt-Turkey relations, which recently seemed a viable possibility, is no longer visible on the horizon, at least for the near future. The coarse atmosphere that developed between the countries following the mutual slandering is an additional obstacle on the road toward restored relations, and strengthens each side’s stubborn adherence to its previous stance.

The Failed Coup Attempt in Turkey: A Boost for Iran-Turkey Relations

At first the attempted coup in Turkey aroused much concern in Iran, and it is therefore no coincidence that Tehran was the first to express support for Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a few hours after the events began. The attempted coup in Turkey confronted Iran with the alarming prospect of a violent conflict in a large, important neighboring country; a possible downfall of an Islamic regime, even a Sunni one, was regarded by Tehran as a dangerous precedent.

French Counterterrorism Strategy at a Crossroads

It is now clear to France that it is in the midst of an all-out war against the threat of terror from both internal and external sources. The assessment by the French of their security situation stems from their concern about additional attacks planned by either terrorist networks or individuals, some of whom are driven by external organized directives, particularly from the Islamic State.

On the Brink of Nuclear Terror? A Threat and Response Balance Sheet

When Shultz, Perry, Kissinger, and Nunn published their op-eds on a world free of nuclear weapons in 2007 and 2008, the primary motivating factor for their new and surprising joint agenda was the fear that the world’s most dangerous weapons, materials, and know-how would fall into the hands of the most dangerous entities, namely, terrorists. When Barack Obama became president in 2009 he adopted this agenda, advocating a plan to reduce nuclear weapons worldwide – to create “a world without nuclear weapons."

The Families of Terrorists and Assigned Residence: The Legal Framework

In light of the wave of terrorist acts Israel has faced over more than six months, including shootings, car rammings, and stabbings of Israeli citizens and soldiers, various proposals have arisen in an attempt to quell this surge. One such proposal, deporting family members of terrorists or assigning their place of residence, raises serious legal concerns and may be legally untenable.