INSS

A Russian Withdrawal from Syria, or Merely a Change in the Form of Involvement?

On March 14, 2016, Vladimir Putin announced the withdrawal of the majority of Russian military units from Syria, after, he claimed, the Russian force had achieved the goals set for it when it entered Syria five and a half months earlier.

Dealing with Terrorism without Falling into its Trap

The March 22, 2016 terrorist attack in Brussels both shook the local population in the targeted country and sent shockwaves throughout Europe. The connection between the attack in Brussels and the November 2015 attack in Paris is already evident. Initial findings from the investigation and the arrest of suspects linked to both events make it clear that a single terrorist network is involved.

The Ceasefire in Syria: Behind the Scenes and Current Implications

On February 27, 2016, a ceasefire went into effect in Syria between the forces of the Assad regime and the opposition. The ceasefire was achieved after the United States and Russia reached understandings regarding the terms of the agreement; Bashar al-Assad and the representatives of the opposition who took part in the contacts accepted its terms; and the ceasefire was grounded in a UN Security Council resolution.

Children of Tunnels, Children of Knives

The current security discourse in Israel relating to the Palestinian arena focuses primarily on two issues: the offensive tunnels dug from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory, which have returned to the headlines in recent weeks following the collapse and flooding of three tunnels within the Strip, and the wave of violence that erupted in the West Bank and East Jerusalem in the autumn of 2015, with knife-based terrorism at its forefront. Against this background, questions arise regarding the role of social media among the other elements fueling the actions of young Palestinians and motivating them to take part in digging and stabbing activity.

The Elections in Iran: A Show of Support for the Rouhani Route

The February 26, 2016 elections for the Iranian parliament and Assembly of Experts constituted a first test of the leadership of President Hassan Rouhani since the signing of the JCPOA between Iran and the P5+1 and the subsequent lifting of sanctions. In light of the high voter turnout – which stood at approximately 60 percent, higher than the turnout in the last elections – the authorities were compelled to keep the polls open for a few hours after their scheduled closing times.

Israel–European Union Relations: Crisis as a Norm

On February 12, 2016, Haaretz reported on a telephone conversation between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and High Representative of the European Union (EU) for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini. In their conversation, which concluded quiet negotiations of the previous weeks between Israel and the EU, the two leaders agreed to end the crisis between Israel and the EU that followed the EU’s November 2015 decision to mark products originating in Jewish communities in the West Bank, Golan Heights, and East Jerusalem.

The Cyber Attack on the Ukrainian Electrical Infrastructure: Another Warning

For some time, security experts have warned that critical services – for example, electricity and water supplies – can be attacked through cyberspace. The assumption is that such action requires sophisticated capabilities in cyber intelligence, technology, and operations, and possession of such capabilities is usually attributed to countries that have invested heavily in their development. Until now, even if in possession of such capabilities, most countries have shown restraint in using cyber tools to materially disrupt essential services and critical infrastructure in enemy countries. Events in Ukraine, however, question whether this assumption of restraint is still valid.

Past Lessons and Future Objectives: A Preemptive Strike on Hamas Tunnels

For Israel, the question regarding the Hamas tunnels is not only what action to take, but also the nature of the confrontation that is sure to follow such action. The repeated rounds of fighting in the Gaza Strip forced on Israel by Hamas since 2009 have not achieved the necessary strategic goals: long term deterrence; severe damage to the Hamas military wing; the weakening of the organization; and effective constraints on its future military buildup. It is no surprise that Hamas, which is preparing for the next confrontation with Israel, is heavily invested in building tunnels. Operation Protective Edge (2014) proved that attack tunnels dug beneath the border of the Gaza Strip were almost the only strategic tool Hamas possessed to attain any significant gain, and most of its other so-called surprises and military efforts – long range rockets, UAVs, and naval commandos – failed.

Egypt and China following Xi’s visit

In the course of the visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt on January 20-22, 2016, Egypt and China announced a five-year, multi-sector cooperation agreement. This agreement injected substance into the “comprehensive strategic partnership” formed during President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s trips to China in December 2014 and September 2015. On a symbolic level, Egypt and China also declared 2016 as “the Egyptian-Chinese cultural year.”

Suicide Attacks in 2015

Over the past two decades, suicide attacks have become a prominent weapon in the arsenal of terrorist organizations in general, and Salafi jihadist organizations in particular. With rare exceptions, the suicide attacks that took place in 2015 were committed by terrorist organizations associated with radical Islam.

Israel, the West, and the Migration Challenge

In 2015, mass migration, whether it be of refugees from war-torn areas or simply jobseekers, became a leading issue in many Western democracies. In the United States, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is riding a wave of popular antagonism toward immigration. In Switzerland, the Swiss People’s Party, which demands limitations on immigration, won a decisive victory in the October elections.

How Deep are the Cracks in the Russian-Iranian Coalition in Syria?

Recent developments in the international arena and on the battlefield in Syria invite some perspective on the stability of the Russian-Iranian coalition formed in September 2015. It appears that after three months of military effort, Russia’s involvement in Syria has not produced the results Moscow anticipated.

Russian Nuclear Diplomacy in the Middle East

During a visit to Egypt by Russian President Vladimir Putin in February 2015, Egypt and Russia signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate in building the first nuclear power station in El Dabaa in northwestern Egypt.

Moderation and Radicalization in Lebanon

After a long period of relative deadlock, Lebanon has recently witnessed a number of political and security-related developments that are likely to have substantive implications for the future of the country. In contrast to 2014 – when Lebanon experienced a number of formative events, most notably the non-election of a new president, increased Hezbollah involvement in the war in Syria alongside the Assad regime and Iran, and the abduction of Lebanese soldiers by the al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State in the border town of Arsal – 2015 was relatively uneventful.

The Confrontation between Turkey and Russia: Lessons for Israel

Israel is not part of the Middle East upheaval and plays almost no active role in it. Whether out of choice or dictated by circumstances, Israeli policy has thus far favored sitting on the fence and observing from the side while developments unfold. Regardless of questions regarding the fundamental wisdom of this policy, current events oblige Israel to internalize and understand the emerging dangers and opportunities in its surroundings.

The Paris Attacks: Not a Strategic Change, but a “Natural” Development

The terrorist attacks in Paris, which were carried out with determined, brutal efficiency and took the lives of 130 people and wounded hundreds more, physically and psychologically, were planned in Syria long in advance, with final preparations made in Belgium. The terrorist network involved in the multi-pronged strike consisted of at least nine members, seven of whom were suicide attackers. As far as is known, there was a logistics coordinator for the attacks, who perhaps was also the commander present. This terrorist, Abed al-Hamid Abaaoud, was later killed when a suicide belt exploded in a safe house where he was hiding before he and fellow terrorists managed to carry out another attack, which seems to have been planned for a financial district in the city.

The Outbreak of “Individual Terrorism” in the Palestinian Arena: The Old Box Lacks the Right Tools

The outbreak of the Palestinian terrorism phenomenon some two months ago took the Israeli public and leadership by surprise in terms of the attacks’ persistence, frequency, and form – primarily stabbings. Underlying the attacks are multi-dimensional motives, reflecting national, religious, and social issues; the principal trigger, at least initially, was religious sentiment focusing on the struggle over the al-Aqsa mosque.

Disengaging from the West Bank Short of a Permanent Agreement: Tenable Security-Wise?

During his visit to Washington earlier this month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke about possible Israeli unilateral action vis-à-vis the Palestinians, stressing that such action “would have to meet Israeli security criteria” and “would also require broader international understandings than exists.” Subsequently, the Prime Minister retracted his statement and issued explanations.

The Slaughter in Paris: Motives and Implications

On November 13, 2015, a series of terrorist attacks shocked France; President François Hollande and other French leaders called the episode the worst terrorist event in the country since the end of World War II. The massacre was carried out by local Muslims from France and Belgium, and possibly also by terrorists who entered Europe ostensibly as refugees.

Farewell to Syria

The civil war in Syria is at the top of the global agenda for two primary reasons. The first is related to Russia’s military presence in the country, which until a few weeks ago was marginal and of a low profile, and became substantial once Russia dispatched dozens of fighter jets and helicopters, hundreds of soldiers, and a defense system for deployment on Syrian soil. Russian President Vladimir Putin has openly stated that the move has three objectives: to help the Assad regime survive, to attack the Islamic State, and to eliminate Russian Islamic radicals fighting in the ranks of the Islamic State. The second reason is related to the massive influx of refugees into Europe, a phenomenon forcing European leaders to stop turning a blind eye to the longstanding civil war.