INSS

Remaking Syria: A Military Update, the Diplomatic Situation, and the Israeli Angle

After more than six blood-soaked years, some half a million dead (mostly civilians), and millions of displaced people and refugees, there are signs that the military stage in the Syrian civil war is approaching an end. The war, which began as a civilian uprising, evolved into a war among jihadist organizations and then into a war among entities vying for regional dominance, bolstered by respective regional and international powers.

The Weakening of the Islamic State: Have the Mighty Fallen?

Much has been written about the Islamic State and its sources of power since it captured headlines in June 2014 with the announcement of the Islamic Caliphate.

Iran and the United States under the Trump Administration

The new American administration and Iran were on a collision course even before President Trump’s inauguration, and the missile tests conducted by Iran (on January 29, 2017), a few days after Trump was sworn in, drew an immediate response. Though not materially different from stances by the Obama administration, the US response took the form of sanctions against 13 people and 12 companies linked to the missile industry, including members of the Revolutionary Guard (a list that was likely prepared in advance). On February 3, 2017, without going into details, then-National Security Advisor Michael Flynn stated that the administration was “officially putting Iran on notice,” and after an attack by Iranian-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen on a Saudi vessel, Secretary of Defense James Mattis emphasized that Iran was the biggest state sponsor of terrorism in the world.

Moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem: Opportunities, Risks, and Recommendations

During the American election campaign, one of the promises that President Trump made was to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

The United States and China at the Outset of the Trump Era: A Rocky Start, with Far-Reaching Potential

The election of Donald Trump heralds a change in United States policy, and with the inauguration of a new administration on January 20, 2017, official policies, many of which remain vague at this point, will begin to take shape. Relations with China are emerging as a major focus of the new administration; they are a key variable in the United States economy – an issue that played a central role in Trump’s election campaign.

Sparta in the Gulf: The Growing Regional Clout of the United Arab Emirates

The weakening of the traditional Arab political and military centers, as a result of the upheavals in the Middle East, has spurred a change in the conduct of some of the Arab Gulf states and boosted their influence. A prominent example of this is the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has positioned itself as a key player in the processes shaping the region. After dealing with potential threats at home, the federation (which includes the emirates of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Ajman, Fujairah, Ras al-Khaimah, Sharjah, and Umm al-Quwain) took a leading role in contending with some of the political, economic, and military challenges posed by the Arab Spring

Suicide Attacks in 2016: The Highest Number of Fatalities

2016 was the deadliest year in suicide terrorism, a main weapon of deterrence and one of the most effective tools for promoting the political goals of terrorist organizations since its use began in the early 1980s. According to the Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict Research Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), in 2016, 469 suicide bombings were carried out by 800 perpetrators in 28 countries, causing the deaths of 5,650 people. These numbers represent bombings that were reported by at least two independent sources; many unverified reports by organizations seeking to glorify their name, headed by the Islamic State, were not counted, and coordinated bombings on a number of targets carried out simultaneously were counted as one bombing.

Secretary of State Kerry’s Speech on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

While the challenge regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict posed by US Secretary of State John Kerry on December 28, 2016, shortly before the end of his term in office, was directed primarily at Israel, it was also aimed at the Palestinians. In his speech, Kerry stipulated the starting points for any future talks between the sides, yet ignoring the fact that in previous rounds of negotiations held over the last twenty years toward a permanent status agreement both sides have rejected these principles. Furthermore, the Secretary of State ignored the turbulence in the Middle East of recent years, although this upheaval demands a reexamination of the traditional negotiations paradigm.

The Quiet Revolution in the Global Oil Industry

In recent years, the oil-producing countries refrained from making informed decisions about reducing the amount of oil they supply to the global market. The result has been a sharp decline in their revenues. In 2012, when the industrialized countries emerged from the economic crisis that hit the world economy in 2008-2009, the price of crude oil soared, reaching $110 a barrel.

Security Council Resolution 2334: The Legal Significance

On December 23, 2016, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2334 on the Jewish settlements, after the United States abstained from the vote and all other 14 members voted in favor. The Security Council resolution was the first to include such a firm condemnation of the Israeli government’s policy on the settlements since Resolution 465 in 1980.

Iran: Naval Bases in Syria and in Yemen?

In late November 2016, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian armed forces, General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri, announced to commanders of the Iranian fleet that Iran may establish naval bases in the future far from its shores, on islands or as floating bases, and that one day it may be possible to have bases on the shores of Yemen or Syria. Baqeri emphasized that expanding the current range of the Iranian naval presence is meant to demonstrate power, strengthen deterrence, and force potential enemies to refrain from entering Iranian waters.

Policy Recommendations on the Middle East for the Trump Administration

The United States' stature as a leading global power in the Middle East has eroded in recent years. The administration's decision to play a reactive rather than a proactive role in the Middle East created a vacuum in the region that was filled by elements that worked against the interests of the United States and its regional allies.

“Adir” in the Sky: The F-35 Arrives in Israel

On December 12, 2016, the first two F-35A jet fighters (dubbed “Adir,” in Israel) will land in Israel. This is a major milestone in the long process of accepting the aircraft into IAF service, a process that began in 2008, when Israel first applied for the planes. Two batches have been ordered, totaling 33 planes, and in late November 2016, Israel’s security cabinet authorized another request; this will bring the total number of Israel’s F-35 aircraft to 50 planes.

The Fires across Israel: Insights and Lessons for National Security

The wave of fires on November 22-26, 2016 throughout Israel – 1,773 in number – resulting from extreme weather conditions (heat, aridness, and winds), should direct the attention of the public and the decision makers to the risks of natural disasters in general, and those caused by large scale fires in open areas in particular (in contrast to house fires). This is a growing phenomenon caused by accelerated global climate change.

Jordan-Israel Relations: Normalization in the Shadow of Political Deadlock

On September 26, 2016, Noble Energy announced that it signed a contract with the Jordan Electric Power Company. Noble Energy is the American partner in the consortium that holds the rights to produce natural gas in the Leviathan field, which is within Israel's exclusive economic zone. The supply of 3 billion cubic meters of gas per year will begin in late 2019 and continue for 15 years.

Donald Trump’s Election as President: Israel’s Additional Focus

The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has prompted many in Israel to issue recommendations to the President-elect and the administration-in-formation regarding policy on Israel.

The Start of the Iranian Presidential Campaign

Earlier than expected, the Iranian political system is preparing for the twelfth presidential elections, scheduled for May 19, 2017. Various political and media figures are discussing the issue, and names of candidates have already been tossed around.

From Baabda to al-Qusayr: Hezbollah’s Victory March

On October 31, 2016, following a prolonged crisis that paralyzed Lebanon’s political system for two and a half years, General Michel Aoun was elected president. Aoun entered the presidential palace in Baabda after an agreement was reached that constituted a victory for Hezbollah and the March 8 Alliance over its opponents in the March 14 Alliance, led by Saad Hariri, head of the Future Movement.

Egypt’s Advance toward a New Social Contract

On November 11, 2016, following protracted negotiations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a loan of $12 billion to Egypt over three years, to help it undertake an ambitious reform plan that should enable it to overcome years of structural problems that burden its economy.

Israel and the United States: An Opportunity to Strengthen the Special Relationship

Although foreign policy in general and US-Israel relations in particular did not feature as a significant issue that tipped the scales in the 2016 US presidential election, there is much interest in Israel regarding Donald Trump’s impending entry into the White House and the future impact of his administration on Israel’s national security.