Ian Nunn

Ian is a retired information technologist. While working at Health Canada he completed a BCS degree with highest honours at Carleton University in 1999. In 1998 he took a leave of absence from the federal government and worked as a consultant to Ontario Hydro Nuclear for 15 months in Y2K risk management. He retired from the government in 2000, went on to earn an MCS degree at Carleton, 2002, and subsequently completed the requirements for a PhD except for a dissertation.Several years of graduate studies have equipped him to do thorough background research and analysis on topics he finds engaging. He is owner of the eclectic blog, The POOG. The acronym “POOG” came from a forgotten source: “pissed-off old guy”. A web search found a more flattering but accurate association: ”The mightiest of all men. He fights ignorant darkness in the name of wisdom, truth, courage, and honor.”Ian lives in Ottawa.

Most Recent Articles by Ian Nunn:

Ontario’s Debt Down The Rabbit Hole

Apr 10, 2018 — Ian Nunn

Ontario's Debt Down The Rabbit Hole
I have written in the past about the duplicity of the Ontario Liberal budgets in speaking only of net debt. The 2018-19 provincial budget was released on March 29 and I will comment briefly on how it handles the topics of debt and deficit. But first a discussion of net and total debt.

Let’s say you have an RRSP of $10,000 nominal value, no credit cards, no loans outstanding, and no other savings since tomorrow is payday and your account is registering empty. Further, your car was in an accident and is a total write-off. You need one for work so you go to your bank and get a loan for $10,000 with a 6-years term and monthly payments of $200. How much debt do you have at this point?

The Ontario Jobs Picture in March: Treading Water – Sharks Nibbling

Apr 8, 2016 — Ian Nunn

This month we change our reporting format to more of a streamlined summary. For data we use the Ontario labour market component from Statistics Canada: CANSIM Table 282-0087, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by sex and age group, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly, and CANSIM Table 282-0088, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), seasonally adjusted and unadjusted.

Data selection methodology and the rational for eschewing the use of seasonally adjusted data as reported by the media, for actual unadjusted data, can be found in the Appendix and Reference Links in The Lies My Mommy Told Me, Part III. All terms are explained in the CANSIM table footnotes and are not reproduced here.

The Ontario Jobs Picture in February: Not Good Under the Hood

Mar 20, 2016 — Ian Nunn

With the media and the politicos largely silent on the February Labour Market Survey jobs report, we were anxious to get a look at the data. First we did a literature search. Reuters reported a Canada-wide loss of 2,300 jobs in total with a loss of 51,800 full-time jobs (offset by an unreported rise in part-time jobs), and a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.3%. The Financial Post and the Globe and Mail both reported similar numbers. Are these numbers accurate and what do they mean? Let’s take a look.

Tracking Canadian House Prices

Feb 12, 2016 — Ian Nunn

This post uses data on Canadian house prices taken primarily from: Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index ™. The index is published monthly on or slightly after the 12th of each month at www.housepriceindex.ca. The 6-city index includes Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, and Halifax, while the 11-city index adds Victoria, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, and Québec City. A snapshot of the month-over-month (mom) and year-over-year (yoy) changes in the indices is shown below in Table 1.

The Weather in 2015: Hardly Extreme

Feb 11, 2016 — Ian Nunn

Last year we made our first annual summary of major storm activity for the previous year, looking at tornadoes, Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific hurricanes (typhoons): The Weather in 2014: Extreme Hysteria but Not Extreme Weather. We now take a look at 2015 to see what kind of a year it was. As we will show, all storm activity was sightly below average for the year.

The Lies My Mommy Told Me, Part III

Feb 8, 2016 — Ian Nunn

We review employment in Ontario periodically. When we saw the Toronto Star article Ontario leads Canada with 19,800 new jobs in January, we decided to see if the headline was true considering that several macro events have occurred: Canada is in recession, the oil market has collapsed and so has the Loonie. We might expect the first two events to decrease employment while the third event should reflect an increase in manufacturing jobs for the export market in particular. Let’s take a look.

The Middle East: A Simmer Or a Rolling Boil?

Jun 9, 2015 — Ian Nunn

This morning we decided that it is time to put together a current view of the Middle East centered on ISIS. To this end, we link several very comprehensive articles but with little commentary of our own other than a bit of glue between the pieces.

For a historical background of the present day complexities of geopolitics in the Middle East, we present a concise overview by George Friedman: A Net Assessment of the Middle East.

Eat your Broccoli Now

Mar 13, 2015 — Ian Nunn

In Another Dry Essay we discussed the drought in California with a chronology of links to related articles through October 2014. We followed up in December with The U.S. South-West Drought Revisited.

The Weather in 2014: Extreme Hysteria but Not Extreme Weather

Jan 6, 2015 — Ian Nunn

We have studied tornadoes (Flash Point: A Note on Tornadoes), hurricanes (Flash Point: Hurricanes and Hyperbole), and typhoons (Flash Point: Typhoons in Perspective) in response to the hyperbole over anthropomorphic global warming and climate change and found no evidence of increased activity. With the 2014 data now in, we see how 2014 compared to past years. In addition we address the current “hottest year” hysteria.

The Ontario Employment Picture: November, 2014

Dec 6, 2014 — Ian Nunn

Overall, the Canadian labour market lost 58,400 jobs in November, more than half in Ontario. The only growth was in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Blowin’ In The Wind

Nov 27, 2014 — Ian Nunn

Yes, how many times can a man turn his head
Pretending he just doesn’t see?
The answer my friend is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind. —Bob Dylan, Blowin’ in the Wind

Yesterday Ontario’s Energy Minister, Bob Chiarelli was blowing in the wind again when he said:
“Businesses will come and go in Ontario… The reality is that there are more coming in than are leaving—very significant.”

Canada: Whither Goest Thou?

Sep 18, 2014 — Ian Nunn

A section in John Mauldin’s weekly eletter, Thoughts From the Front Lines, caught our attention. In particular he showed this chart:

Flash Point: Hot It’s Not – Get Your Bias Right

Sep 4, 2014 — Ian Nunn

We have written many articles under the Climate category on this site that deal with the “global warming”; issue and climate temperature. The IPCC and AGW adherents have been confounded by the fact that temperatures have not risen since 1998 (their grudging admission). They have been working overtime to explain this “hiatus”; as a pause in a trend towards planetary ignition due to anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere.

Beauty and the Beast: Mom’s Latest Child

Aug 10, 2014 — Ian Nunn

The Ontario Government released a statement on August 8th titled Ontario Gains 15,100 Jobs in July. In The Real Job Situation in Ontario: Ugly we analyzed the employment numbers for Ontario for June, 2014. Overall we noted:

The Real Job Situation in Ontario: Ugly

Jul 13, 2014 — Ian Nunn

Since the governing Liberals have proven to be inveterate liars as we have documented many times, we thought we would review the latest job statistics for Ontario. As background, particularly for understanding what seasonal adjustment means, read The Lies My Mommy Told Me, Part II.

The Lies My Mommy Told Me, Part II

Jan 11, 2014 — Ian Nunn

In Ontar-I-Owe we showed how the Ontario government deliberately misstated the provincial debt—they lied (A false statement deliberately presented as being true; a falsehood.). We had been meaning to take a look at Ontario job creation numbers for quite a while. So, when we saw the article in today’s Ottawa Citizen, Ontario Liberals defend poor December job numbers, we thought it would be worth a chuckle if nothing else to examine what the Government had to say.

Obama Has Secured His Legacy

Nov 25, 2013 — Ian Nunn

... as the most inept and disastrous president in American history.

Flash Point: The Future of Housing in Canada

Dec 7, 2012 — Ian Nunn

the POOG

We came across this interesting graphic today from Business Insider titled CITI’S MATT KING PRESENTS: ‘The Most Depressing Slide I’ve Ever Created’. It shows a country’s dependency ratio on an inverted scale versus the county’s house price index.

Flash Point: The Significant Impact of U.S. Oil Production

Dec 1, 2012 — Ian Nunn

US Global Investors have given us a concise overview of US oil production up to t2020. In an article titled The Significant Impact of U.S. Oil Production, CEO Frank Holmes considers trends in production and demand that show by 2020, the US may require only about 3 MMBbls/day imports.

Flash Point: The need for Vigilance

Oct 16, 2012 — Ian Nunn

The Poog

We are aware of a number of initiatives aimed at creating a world government through the United Nations. The latest comes in the form of broad taxes to be levied onto developed nations as part of a larger scheme of centralized wealth redistribution.