Between a rock and a hard place

Poor Hillary. Poor Obama. Poor Democrats. The one thing they have in common is that they are caught on the horns of a dilemma when it comes to Obama’s choice of running mate. I can’t imagine that Hillary would accept the position, given that she would then likely have to wait another eight years before she gets another shot at the Big Prize. In 2016 she will be 69 years old and for her a run for the presidency would be an uphill battle all the way. The only circumstances under which I can see Mrs. Clinton accepting the spot as number two would be if she had some prior knowledge that Barack Obama would not live to finish his first term.

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And while Hillary Clinton has shown herself to be a good soldier by assiduously campaigning for her former rival, it’s clear that she continues to carry a torch for the Oval Office. Agreeing to run as Obama’s Veep would be a major disruption of her career path. If, as expected by many, Obama’s performance as President is on par with that of, say Jimmy Carter, there’s little chance that the Democrats will switch horses in mid-stream, dumping Obama in favor of his vice president as the 2012 presidential candidate. What’s more, even if that were to happen, Hillary Clinton would then find herself having to promise to do better than the pervious administration of which she had been a major component. She would be much more effective to just sit this one out as Obama is starting to look more and more like a loser. If she does, then she will be crowned as Democratic candidate in 2012 at age 65 with a good chance of turning McCain into a one-term president. Poor Barack Obama is stuck with a difficult choice, given that the names he’s floated over the past few months haven’t necessarily been household words in the U.S. The closest to it is Joe Biden who is a well-respected Democrat with lots of foreign affairs experience, but he hasn’t shown a great deal of fervor for the job. Then there’s New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who might be helpful in securing the Hispanic votes, but beyond that hasn’t much to offer. Also, Tim Kaine, the current governor of Virginia is strongly under consideration because of his ability to speak Spanish and his background as a civil rights lawyer. I would be surprised if Obama did choose Hillary as his running mate for a number of reasons. First and foremost, the Clintons have said some very harsh things about Obama, some too harsh to take back. Michelle Obama would be particularly opposed to having Hillary on the ticket, given the sparks that have flown between them in the past. What’s more, if Obama did pick Hillary as his running mate, it would be an admission on his part that he could not win without her support and there’s the danger that she might even be perceived as the stronger of the two. This puts the campaign in a very unfortunate position, as there is a good chance that Democrats who supported Hillary will bale this year and either not cast their ballots in November or worse, cast their ballots for McCain. Finally whichever running mate Obama decides to go with, all the candidates that so far have been floated as possibilities have resumes way more impressive than that of Barack Obama, which in many ways will serve to highlight rather than allay fears about Obama’s lack of experience or substance. The people who are in the worst predicament right now are the Democrats because clearly the vice-presidential candidate of their choice is Hillary. Given the results of a recent poll taken among Democratic Convention delegates, wherein names like Edwards and Biden polled at 4% and 6% respectively, Hillary polled a stunning 28%. So while the Democrats clearly want to have their cake and eat it by having the two former archrivals running together, chances of that happening are very slim. The reality is that more and more Democrats are beginning to realize that Obama is a lightweight of spectacular proportions, his high-flown and empty rhetoric notwithstanding. As my colleague JB Williams pointed out in these pages, there’s still a possibility, no matter how slight, that Hillary will get the nomination, which would embarrass the Democrats hugely. So the Democrats’ problem is two-fold: How to avoid a loss in November and how to maintain harmony within the party. The obvious answer would be to have Hillary as Obama’s running mate. But as they say, “If you hope in one hand and spit into the other, which to do you think will fill up first?”